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Re: Another wrist slapping

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UK and Europe
Published
23 May 2007
Last activity
16 June 2007
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spindrift
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  1. " in a car 30 doesn't feel fast nor does 50. "

    Quite right, cars are hermetically sealed bubbles of contentment, the
    impression of speed is deadened, quietened, diminished, silenced.
    Suspension is better making a smoother ride, airbags and crumple zones
    are common so the driver knows they are protected should they crash at
    speed. Maybe these advances contribute to risk compensation as when
    the accident rate increased after seat belts were made compulsory.

    Advances in the human body to withstand an impact with a ton of metal
    travelling at lethal speeds have not matched these advances.
    Vulnerable road users are just as vulnerable.

    Just what does a killer driver have to do to lose their licence? Get
    rid of them, the roads are overcrowded after all, and populated by far
    too many people like Ms Hunter who learn nothing from their (two)
    previous convictions for speeding.

  2. spindrift said:

    " in a car 30 doesn't feel fast nor does 50. "

    Quite right, cars are hermetically sealed bubbles of contentment, the
    impression of speed is deadened, quietened, diminished, silenced.
    Suspension is better making a smoother ride, airbags and crumple zones
    are common so the driver knows they are protected should they crash at
    speed. Maybe these advances contribute to risk compensation...

    Undoubtedly. And "risk compensation" is a natural human phenomenon, not
    a criminal trait.

    Quoted message said:

    ...as when
    the accident rate increased after seat belts were made compulsory.

    Do you have a source for that? The official UK figures don't seem to
    show it.

    Quoted message said:

    Advances in the human body to withstand an impact with a ton of metal
    travelling at lethal speeds have not matched these advances.

    Precisely. Now you see why we should be working towards a sustainable
    way of ensuring that vulnerable human bodies, and hard metal objects
    moving at speed, do not exist in the same space.

    Quoted message said:

    Vulnerable road users are just as vulnerable.

    Yes.

    Quoted message said:

    Just what does a killer driver have to do to lose their licence?

    Not much these days. Yet even with thousands of disqualified drivers,
    the roads are still no safer.

    Perhaps it is incorrect to assume that by banning drivers that have
    already contravened some law or other, that all other drivers will
    suddenly loose their human frailties and gasin super-human powers enough
    to be able to concentrate on all laws and on all regulations and on all
    road signs and on all road signals and on all other road users - all of
    the time. - Funny that doesn't seem to hold true.

    Quoted message said:

    Get
    rid of them, the roads are overcrowded after all, and populated by far
    too many people like Ms Hunter who learn nothing from their (two)
    previous convictions for speeding.

    Or, alternatively, recongise the "human condition" as a valid, natural,
    phenomenon, and design around it.

    Do we want sustainable road safety, or more jails bulging full of normal
    human beings?

    --
    Matt B

  3. On Wed, 23 May 2007 15:57:17 +0100, Matt B

    matt.bourke'@nospam.london.com said:

    "risk compensation" is a natural human phenomenon, not a criminal trait.

    Or, alternatively, recongise the "human condition" as a valid, natural,
    phenomenon, and design around it.

    Do we want sustainable road safety, or more jails bulging full of normal
    human beings?

    Jealousy, rage, deviousness, impatience and covetousness are all human
    conditions, too. They can all aflict normal human beings. They can
    sometimes lead to crimes, and the criminals are, quite rightly, locked
    up to safeguard the public.

    Why should the car criminals be treated leniently just because they
    suffer from "risk compensation"? Lock 'em away; safeguard the public.

    You are, after all, constantly droning on about treating car drivers no
    differently from the rest of society. So let's do precicely that, and
    not give them special favours.

  4. Marc Brett said:

    On Wed, 23 May 2007 15:57:17 +0100, Matt B

    matt.bourke'@nospam.london.com said:

    "risk compensation" is a natural human phenomenon, not a criminal trait.

    Or, alternatively, recongise the "human condition" as a valid, natural,
    phenomenon, and design around it.

    Do we want sustainable road safety, or more jails bulging full of normal
    human beings?

    Jealousy, rage, deviousness, impatience and covetousness are all human
    conditions, too. They can all aflict normal human beings. They can
    sometimes lead to crimes, and the criminals are, quite rightly, locked
    up to safeguard the public.

    They are also used in mitigation. "Crimes of passion" are generally
    treated more leniently than crimes caused by "wickedness".

    Quoted message said:

    Why should the car criminals be treated leniently just because they
    suffer from "risk compensation"? Lock 'em away; safeguard the public.

    Risk compensation is not a deliberate or conscious act. It is an
    automatic human instinctive behaviour which is difficult to suppress.

    Quoted message said:

    You are, after all, constantly droning on about treating car drivers no
    differently from the rest of society. So let's do precicely that, and
    not give them special favours.

    Yes, my sentiments exactly - I've said the same for years. And equally
    to expect no super-human powers to be exhibited by them. The thing is
    though, it's a big step to remove all the rules and regulations
    dedicated solely to the safe and speedy passage of the motorist - so
    don't hold your breath - but I'm glad you see my point.

    --
    Matt B

  5. Matt B'wrote spindrift said:
    Quoted message said:

    " in a car 30 doesn't feel fast nor does 50. "

    Quite right, cars are hermetically sealed bubbles of contentment, the
    impression of speed is deadened, quietened, diminished, silenced.
    Suspension is better making a smoother ride, airbags and crumple zones
    are common so the driver knows they are protected should they crash at
    speed. Maybe these advances contribute to risk compensation...

    Certainly do.

    Quoted message said:


    Undoubtedly. And "risk compensation" is a natural human phenomenon, not a
    criminal trait.

    Quoted message said:

    ...as when
    the accident rate increased after seat belts were made compulsory.

    Do you have a source for that? The official UK figures don't seem to show
    it.

    I remember that the death rates for pedestrians and cyclist went up, whilst
    drivers deaths stayed the same.

    Quoted message said:


    Quoted message said:

    Advances in the human body to withstand an impact with a ton of metal
    travelling at lethal speeds have not matched these advances.

    Precisely. Now you see why we should be working towards a sustainable way
    of ensuring that vulnerable human bodies, and hard metal objects moving at
    speed, do not exist in the same space.

    Indeed, we have to ensure that the all road users have an equal investment
    in avoiding accidents. Since the physical results of accidents are so
    unequal in that a driver can kill with physical impunity, the legal
    penalties must be used to redress the balance. I would prefer that the
    physical results were equal. What are called "dangerous" cars are those in
    which the occupants are less likely to survive an accident. As far as I am
    concerned these are safer.

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    Vulnerable road users are just as vulnerable.

    Yes.

    Quoted message said:

    Just what does a killer driver have to do to lose their licence?

    Not much these days. Yet even with thousands of disqualified drivers, the
    roads are still no safer.

    Perhaps it is incorrect to assume that by banning drivers that have
    already contravened some law or other, that all other drivers will
    suddenly loose their human frailties and gasin super-human powers enough
    to be able to concentrate on all laws and on all regulations and on all
    road signs and on all road signals and on all other road users - all of
    the time. - Funny that doesn't seem to hold true.

    Strange suggestion. I think that most drivers know how to do all these
    things but for some reason don't. I think they only need sufficient
    incentive.

    Quoted message said:


    Quoted message said:

    Get
    rid of them, the roads are overcrowded after all, and populated by far
    too many people like Ms Hunter who learn nothing from their (two)
    previous convictions for speeding.

    Or, alternatively, recongise the "human condition" as a valid, natural,
    phenomenon, and design around it.

    That is what I suggest. Change the construction of cars regulations.

    Quoted message said:


    Do we want sustainable road safety, or more jails bulging full of normal
    human beings?

    I think that jail is hardly ever a useful penalty for any criminal. I would
    not send this woman to jail. Lifetime bans are completely appropriate. At 57
    I am only now learning to drive in order to chauffeur my widowed mother. So
    for all this time I have been in the position of a banee. Hasn't been too
    bad. If not being able to drive is such a dire punishment, what of the old
    (see Jo Brand) or the too disabled, or children? What have they done to
    deserve not being able to drive? It would better for all if society was not
    arranged mainly to suit the motorised. I might reluctantly allow prison for
    driving whilst banned. So this woman might go to prison for driving whilst
    banned for speeding.

    Mike Sales

  6. Mike Sales said:
    Matt B said:
    spindrift said:

    the accident rate increased after seat belts were made compulsory.


    Do you have a source for that? The official UK figures don't seem to show
    it.

    I remember that the death rates for pedestrians and cyclist went up, whilst
    drivers deaths stayed the same.

    Do /you/ have a reliable source for that, because the official UK
    figures do not show that.

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    Advances in the human body to withstand an impact with a ton of metal
    travelling at lethal speeds have not matched these advances.


    Precisely. Now you see why we should be working towards a sustainable way
    of ensuring that vulnerable human bodies, and hard metal objects moving at
    speed, do not exist in the same space.

    Indeed, we have to ensure that the all road users have an equal investment
    in avoiding accidents.

    And less opportunity to, and less likelihood of, causing them.

    Quoted message said:

    Since the physical results of accidents are so
    unequal in that a driver can kill with physical impunity, the legal
    penalties must be used to redress the balance.

    Or better still, the environment designed to reduce the ways accidents
    can happen.

    Quoted message said:

    I would prefer that the
    physical results were equal. What are called "dangerous" cars are those in
    which the occupants are less likely to survive an accident. As far as I am
    concerned these are safer.

    Agreed.

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    Just what does a killer driver have to do to lose their licence?


    Not much these days. Yet even with thousands of disqualified drivers, the
    roads are still no safer.

    Perhaps it is incorrect to assume that by banning drivers that have
    already contravened some law or other, that all other drivers will
    suddenly loose their human frailties and gasin super-human powers enough
    to be able to concentrate on all laws and on all regulations and on all
    road signs and on all road signals and on all other road users - all of
    the time. - Funny that doesn't seem to hold true.

    Strange suggestion. I think that most drivers know how to do all these
    things but for some reason don't. I think they only need sufficient
    incentive.

    They know how to, but can't do all of those things all of the time,
    because they are human. The majority, by a long way, of collisions on
    our roads are down to "human error". Another day with the same inputs,
    the result would be /no/ collision. The variable is the human psyche.
    We need to take account of it.

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    Get
    rid of them, the roads are overcrowded after all, and populated by far
    too many people like Ms Hunter who learn nothing from their (two)
    previous convictions for speeding.


    Or, alternatively, recongise the "human condition" as a valid, natural,
    phenomenon, and design around it.

    That is what I suggest. Change the construction of cars regulations.

    Quoted message said:

    Do we want sustainable road safety, or more jails bulging full of normal
    human beings?

    I think that jail is hardly ever a useful penalty for any criminal. I would
    not send this woman to jail. Lifetime bans are completely appropriate. At 57
    I am only now learning to drive in order to chauffeur my widowed mother. So
    for all this time I have been in the position of a banee. Hasn't been too
    bad. If not being able to drive is such a dire punishment, what of the old
    (see Jo Brand) or the too disabled, or children? What have they done to
    deserve not being able to drive? It would better for all if society was not
    arranged mainly to suit the motorised. I might reluctantly allow prison for
    driving whilst banned. So this woman might go to prison for driving whilst
    banned for speeding.

    I agree with what you say, in the main. I disagree with your support
    for bans. I think bans should only be considered for those whose
    actions are wilful. I think the ideal will be when everyone is entitled
    to (and able to) drive without special training, and without tests etc.
    Roads and vehicles could be designed to allow children, the old, the
    poor, the rich, everyone, to drive safely without injuring each other -
    as they all manage it whilst walking. We are, of course, a long way
    from being able to deliver that yet.

    --
    Matt B

  7. On Wed, 23 May 2007 19:38:53 +0100,

    Mike Sales said:
    Quoted message said:


    Do you have a source for that? The official UK figures don't seem to show
    it.

    I remember that the death rates for pedestrians and cyclist went up, whilst
    drivers deaths stayed the same.


    No. Driver deaths went down - but only between the hours of 10pm and 4am
    (or something like that).

    Obviously absolutely nothing to do with the introduction of evidential
    breath testing at the same time. Everybody knows that seatbelts work
    best at night.

    The time when deaths did go up was when compulsory seatbelts for back
    seat children were brought in. IIRC deaths for all groups rose but rear
    seat children rose faster than anybody else.

    Tim.

    --
    God said, "div D = rho, div B = 0, curl E = - @B/@t, curl H = J + @D/@t,"
    and there was light.

    http://tjw.hn.org/ http://www.locofungus.btinternet.co.uk/

  8. spindrift said:


    Maybe these advances contribute to risk compensation as when
    the accident rate increased after seat belts were made compulsory.

    That is an urban myth, there was no trend reversal.

    Check the RCGB road deaths data, you will see no trend change
    correlating with the seat-belt legislation - for pedestrians and
    cyclists the trend continued to be downwards.

    In fact the trend for all road deaths showed a sustained decline from
    the year dot until the early 1990s, when it levelled off.

    --
    Matt B

  9. Matt B 'matt.bourke'@nospam.london.com said:
    spindrift said:

    Maybe these advances contribute to risk compensation as when
    the accident rate increased after seat belts were made compulsory.

    That is an urban myth, there was no trend reversal.

    Check the RCGB road deaths data, you will see no trend change
    correlating with the seat-belt legislation - for pedestrians and
    cyclists the trend continued to be downwards.

    In fact the trend for all road deaths showed a sustained decline from
    the year dot until the early 1990s, when it levelled off.


    Wrong:

    Here's an email I sent to someone several years ago - the links may no
    longer work, sorry, but I haven't got time to find where they've gone
    to.

    1982 there were 5934 deaths
    1983 there were 5445 deaths
    1984 there were 5559 deaths

    1982 there were 1550 deaths attributed to alcohol
    1983 there were 1110 deaths attributed to alcohol
    1984 there were 1170 deaths attributed to alochol

    Therefore:
    1982 4384 deaths non alcohol related
    1983 4335 deaths non alcohol related
    1984 4380 deaths non alcohol related

    Drink driving.
    http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_transstats/documents/page/dft_transstats_021596.pdf

    Crash stats
    http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_transstats/documents/page/dft_transstats_032078.pdf

    Pedestrians Cyclists M/Bike
    1982 1869 294 1090
    1983 1914 323 963
    1984 1868 345 967

    Motorcyclists will be impacted by the breath testing laws. Making the
    (possibly unjustified) assumption that the deaths attributed to
    alcohol affect M/Bike the same as population in general we would have
    expected to see about 700 deaths in 1983 and 1984 for motorcyclists.

    I think you could easily make the case that the 1983 seatbelt law
    caused about 200-250 extra deaths as compared to the imediately
    preceding years.

    ISTR rumours that the Isles report(1981) predicted a 3% increase in
    deaths if compulsory seatbelts were introduced. Given the 1982 figures
    this would imply about 180 extra deaths.

    Tim.

  10. On May 24, 12:59 pm, "[email hidden]" <[email hidden]>

    Quoted message said:
    Matt B 'matt.bourke'@nospam.london.com wrote: spindrift said:
    Quoted message said:

    Maybe these advances contribute to risk compensation as when
    the accident rate increased after seat belts were made compulsory.

    Quoted message said:

    That is an urban myth, there was no trend reversal.

    Quoted message said:

    Check the RCGB road deaths data, you will see no trend change
    correlating with the seat-belt legislation - for pedestrians and
    cyclists the trend continued to be downwards.

    Quoted message said:

    In fact the trend for all road deaths showed a sustained decline from
    the year dot until the early 1990s, when it levelled off.

    Wrong:

    Here's an email I sent to someone several years ago - the links may no
    longer work, sorry, but I haven't got time to find where they've gone
    to.

    1982 there were 5934 deaths
    1983 there were 5445 deaths
    1984 there were 5559 deaths

    1982 there were 1550 deaths attributed to alcohol
    1983 there were 1110 deaths attributed to alcohol
    1984 there were 1170 deaths attributed to alochol

    Therefore:
    1982 4384 deaths non alcohol related
    1983 4335 deaths non alcohol related
    1984 4380 deaths non alcohol related

    Just shows you know f**k all aboput statistics if you're trying to
    prove a trend, or lack, of from 3 points.

    MBQ

  11. On Thu, 24 May 2007 12:37:26 +0100 someone who may be Matt B
    <"matt.bourke"@nospam.london.com> wrote this:-

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    Maybe these advances contribute to risk compensation as when
    the accident rate increased after seat belts were made compulsory.

    That is an urban myth, there was no trend reversal.

    Incorrect.

    Messers Durbin and Harvey were both professors of statistics and
    thus rather more au fait with the subject than those people who only
    think that they understand statistics.

    There was a long established trend which, in the absence of
    interventions, one may assume would have continued. Their report
    measured variations from this trend and that is how the 40% increase
    in cyclist fatalities in two years was measured.

    Next contestant please.

    --
    David Hansen, Edinburgh
    I will *always* explain revoked encryption keys, unless RIP prevents me
    http://www.opsi.gov.uk/acts/acts2000/00023--e.htm#54

  12. Quoted message said:
    Matt B 'matt.bourke'@nospam.london.com said:
    spindrift said:

    Maybe these advances contribute to risk compensation as when
    the accident rate increased after seat belts were made compulsory.


    That is an urban myth, there was no trend reversal.

    Check the RCGB road deaths data, you will see no trend change
    correlating with the seat-belt legislation - for pedestrians and
    cyclists the trend continued to be downwards.

    In fact the trend for all road deaths showed a sustained decline from
    the year dot until the early 1990s, when it levelled off.


    Wrong:

    Here's an email I sent to someone several years ago - the links may no
    longer work, sorry, but I haven't got time to find where they've gone
    to.

    1982 there were 5934 deaths
    1983 there were 5445 deaths
    1984 there were 5559 deaths

    Seat-belts were compulsory from January 1983? Yet '83 maintains the
    downward trend. The upward blip for 1984 doesn't prove a trend change
    due to an event that occurred at the beginning of 1983.

    Look at the following years, they more than compensate.
    1985 5165
    1986 5385
    1987 5125
    1988 5052

    Quoted message said:

    Pedestrians Cyclists M/Bike
    1982 1869 294 1090
    1983 1914 323 963
    1984 1868 345 967

    1985 1789 286 796
    1986 1841 271 762
    1987 1703 280 723
    1988 1753 227 670

    Blips are not statistically significant. Look at the trend from the
    begining of 1983.

    Quoted message said:

    I think you could easily make the case that the 1983 seatbelt law
    caused about 200-250 extra deaths as compared to the imediately
    preceding years.

    How? You assume an upward blip, starting 12 months after they were made
    compulsory, proves causation? Even though the trend is restored the
    following year? Do you work for a camera partnership? ;-)

    Quoted message said:

    ISTR rumours that the Isles report(1981) predicted a 3% increase in
    deaths if compulsory seatbelts were introduced. Given the 1982 figures
    this would imply about 180 extra deaths.

    It was obviously wrong then. Deaths plummeted.

    --
    Matt B

  13. David Hansen said:

    On Thu, 24 May 2007 12:37:26 +0100 someone who may be Matt B
    <"matt.bourke"@nospam.london.com> wrote this:-

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    Maybe these advances contribute to risk compensation as when
    the accident rate increased after seat belts were made compulsory.


    That is an urban myth, there was no trend reversal.

    Incorrect.

    Messers Durbin and Harvey were both professors of statistics and
    thus rather more au fait with the subject than those people who only
    think that they understand statistics.

    There was a long established trend which, in the absence of
    interventions, one may assume would have continued. Their report
    measured variations from this trend and that is how the 40% increase
    in cyclist fatalities in two years was measured.

    Yet it is not reflected in the RCGB data? Did they study UK data?

    --
    Matt B

  14. I do not agree that the cyclist killer should be sent to prison for a
    long time. Society would then be paying twice for her actions, once by
    killing one of us and twice by the huge cost it would be to keep her
    there in the level of comfort to which prisoners are entitled
    nowadays.

    A far better set of punishments would be as follows:

    (i) Life time ban from driving.
    (ii) The confiscation of her property to compensate the next of kin
    for the victim's estimated lifetime income stream and the state for
    the cost of dealing with the accident and the prosecution.
    (iii) A punitive tax linked to all of her future earnings to also pay
    for (ii) above.
    (iv) If (ii) and (iii) does not raise sufficent cash, she should also
    forfeit her right to receive anything from the welfare state.
    (v) The requirement to walk through the centre of her town, once a
    week for the rest of her life, in chains, carrying a noticeboard
    giving details of what she has done.

    I think this ticks all the boxes.

  15. Chris Eilbeck said:
    raisethe said:

    (i) Life time ban from driving.

    Lifetime bans don't work though, do they? Anyone banned from driving
    can easily buy a car for cash, drive it uninsured, drive with false
    plates, speed past cameras knowing they won't get caught, don't bother
    with MOT etc. They'd only get caught out by being stopped by the
    police and when does that ever happen since they retreated into their
    stations?

    Chris

    If someone has commited an offence serious enough to warrant such a
    ban then they should be closely monitored. If they are caught driving
    again then they should suffer amputation.

    Not only would life bans work, very few would need to be handed out,
    and those who had them could be watched closely.

  16. raisethe said:

    (i) Life time ban from driving.

    Lifetime bans don't work though, do they? Anyone banned from driving
    can easily buy a car for cash, drive it uninsured, drive with false
    plates, speed past cameras knowing they won't get caught, don't bother
    with MOT etc. They'd only get caught out by being stopped by the
    police and when does that ever happen since they retreated into their
    stations?

    Chris
    --
    Chris Eilbeck

  17. in message <[email hidden]>, Chris Eilbeck

    (') said:
    raisethe said:

    (i) Life time ban from driving.

    Lifetime bans don't work though, do they? Anyone banned from driving
    can easily buy a car for cash, drive it uninsured, drive with false
    plates, speed past cameras knowing they won't get caught, don't bother
    with MOT etc. They'd only get caught out by being stopped by the
    police and when does that ever happen since they retreated into their
    stations?

    Yup. Which is why driving without a licence needs to mean automatic
    crushing of the car (if it's not theirs, whoevers it is shouldn't have
    lent/hired it to someone without a licence) and automatic jail time.

    Actually, the simplest thing given the law as it is would be to give anyone
    who kills while driving an automatic life sentence, and then (after a
    suitable period which could be zero days) let them out on licence, with a
    condition of their licence being that they don't ever drive. Then, if
    caught driving, they could be back in prison immediately without having to
    wait for a court to look at it.

    --
    [email hidden] (Simon Brooke) http://www.jasmine.org.uk/~simon/
    ;; First they came for the asylum seekers,
    ;; and I did not speak out because I was not an asylum seeker.
    ;; Then they came for the gypsies,
    ;; and I did not speak out because I was not a gypsy...
    ;; Pastor Martin Niemuller, translated by Michael Howard.

  18. On Thu, 24 May 2007 13:34:12 +0100 someone who may be Matt B
    <"matt.bourke"@nospam.london.com> wrote this:-

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    Messers Durbin and Harvey were both professors of statistics and
    thus rather more au fait with the subject than those people who only
    think that they understand statistics.

    There was a long established trend which, in the absence of
    interventions, one may assume would have continued. Their report
    measured variations from this trend and that is how the 40% increase
    in cyclist fatalities in two years was measured.

    Yet it is not reflected in the RCGB data? Did they study UK data?

    Yes, Messers Durbin and Harvey did study the UK data. Search engines
    should pull up references to their report, though I doubt if the
    report itself is available on-line.

    Next contestant please.

    --
    David Hansen, Edinburgh
    I will *always* explain revoked encryption keys, unless RIP prevents me
    http://www.opsi.gov.uk/acts/acts2000/00023--e.htm#54

  19. On 24 May 2007 05:57:49 -0700 someone who may be raisethe
    <[email hidden]> wrote this:-

    Quoted message said:

    A far better set of punishments would be as follows:

    (i) Life time ban from driving.
    (ii) The confiscation of her property to compensate the next of kin
    for the victim's estimated lifetime income stream and the state for
    the cost of dealing with the accident and the prosecution.
    (iii) A punitive tax linked to all of her future earnings to also pay
    for (ii) above.
    (iv) If (ii) and (iii) does not raise sufficent cash, she should also
    forfeit her right to receive anything from the welfare state.
    (v) The requirement to walk through the centre of her town, once a
    week for the rest of her life, in chains, carrying a noticeboard
    giving details of what she has done.

    I think this ticks all the boxes.

    Except that the courts would listen to the whinings of the criminal
    and let them off.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/south_of_scotland/6686959.stm is
    one example. The criminal didn't kill cyclists, but the lives of
    those in cars are just as valuable as the lives of those on bikes.

    --
    David Hansen, Edinburgh
    I will *always* explain revoked encryption keys, unless RIP prevents me
    http://www.opsi.gov.uk/acts/acts2000/00023--e.htm#54

  20. David Hansen said:

    On Thu, 24 May 2007 13:34:12 +0100 someone who may be Matt B
    <"matt.bourke"@nospam.london.com> wrote this:-

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    Messers Durbin and Harvey were both professors of statistics and
    thus rather more au fait with the subject than those people who only
    think that they understand statistics.

    There was a long established trend which, in the absence of
    interventions, one may assume would have continued. Their report
    measured variations from this trend and that is how the 40% increase
    in cyclist fatalities in two years was measured.


    Yet it is not reflected in the RCGB data? Did they study UK data?

    Yes, Messers Durbin and Harvey did study the UK data. Search engines
    should pull up references to their report, though I doubt if the
    report itself is available on-line.

    I found this reference to a report of theirs in a report from RoSPA on
    ISA[1]:

    "The predicted savings with Mandatory Dynamic ISA are considerably
    greater than was achieved with perhaps the most effective single measure
    to date in Britain, the introduction of compulsory seatbelt wearing for
    front occupants, which achieved a 20% reduction in fatalities to front
    seat occupants, i.e. a 7% reduction in fatalities overall (Harvey and
    Durbin, 1986)."

    Quoted message said:

    Next contestant please.

    It's not a contest - I'm only looking for the truth. I know the risk
    homeostasis stuff, but the RCGB stats do not show a loss of downward
    trend from January 1982. Quite the opposite. If you can help to
    clarify this please do.

    [1]
    <http://www.rospa.com/roadsafety/conferences/congress2002/proceedings/carsten.pdf>

    --
    Matt B

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