Quoted message said:Frank K. said:Again, we get no details from our anonymous bike messenger.
We've been over this a thousand times and I've
given the "details" a thousand times in a thousand
different threads. Boring. You KNOW I have the
details.
Oh, you've yammered before about how my data must be bad. I don't
recall you giving "good" data that disproves what I've found, though.
Quoted message said:
Quoted message said:I've given
the best data I could find on comparative fatalities per hour from
several sources,
The only "data" you've given on US fatalities per hour
was the random unsourced chart from an article about
car fires in a 1993 issue of Design News.
I've given miles-per-fatality data for England & Australia. I'm not
sure I can dig out the sources immediately, but they were on the order
of 16 million miles between fatalities. That comes to thousands of
years of riding per fatality.
I've mentioned comparative data from other countries. The general
trend is that cycling is roughly as safe, per hour, as motoring -
sometimes a bit more, sometimes a bit less. But if many countries'
agencies give the same general result, it sounds like corroboration to
me.
And as I've said before, if you want to claim cycling is "only" as safe
as motoring per hour, that's fine with me. I won't argue.
Can we agree to a truce on that point?
Quoted message said:And what's more, if you take a good
look at the chart in question, it seems to confirm
my suspicion that it was concocted at 3am by some
young and desperate magazine writer or editor.
Mr. Anonymous Bike Messenger, such judgment on your part is ludicrous.
Are you claiming the editor falsified the data, or lied in claiming it
was tabulated by the biggest risk consultation firm in the US? You're
perilously close to libeling an editor, simply because you don't like
the data he printed - because in a list ranking the danger of a dozen
activities, they made cycling sound too safe for you!
As always, I'm astonished at your dedication to making cycling sound
dangerous. But I'm newly astonished that you'd stoop to libel.
Quoted message said:Your mention of comparative Er visits is completely
meaningless for your purpose, if you're serious.
I know. It's fine to say bicyclists suffer 560,000 ER visits per year,
because that sounds sufficiently scary to you. It's wrong to say
basketball players suffer 640,000 ER visits per year, because that puts
the cycling figure in context and makes cycling sound not so bad. It's
wrong to point out that the number of hours spent cycling almost
certainly exceeds that playing basketball, so the per-hour figure is
even harder for you to swallow. It's wrong to point out there are as
many ER visits due to injuries from soft furniture as from bicycles.
IOW, your unstated standard is clear: If it make cycling sound bad,
it's good. If it makes cycling sound good, I shouldn't mention it!
Quoted message said:Your repeated claim that most cyclist ER visits
are for "skinned knees" is the most foul of your
entire repetoir. [sic]
My specific claim is that almost all the injuries of cyclists treated
in ERs are medically classified as "minor." Check out the paper.
Stutts, et. al, "Bicycle Accidents: An Examination of Hospital
Emergency Room Reports and Comparison with Police Accident Data,"
Transportation Research Record #1168
Perhaps you will then start libeling Mr. Stutts?
Quoted message said:The implication is unmistakable--
not only are crashed cyclists 'incompetent,' they
are pussies as well.
Bull. I think there are several reasons for this: First, road rash,
while minor, hurts a lot and bleeds a lot; people are scared of it, and
want something for pain. Second, most riding (and most crashing) is
done during times ordinary doctors are closed, so in the amazing US
medical system, there's not much selection in between a bandaid and the
ER. Third, there's the "OMIGOD!" factor, promoted by people like
yourself: "OMIGOD! YOU FELL OFF YOUR BIKE! YOU MIGHT DIE! LET'S
RUSH YOU TO THE ER!" Justified? No, but people like you contribute to
that nonsense.
Quoted message said:I think you need to check your
definition of 'minor injury.' Minor injury in the
ER: lacerations requiring stitches, bad sprains
and strains requiring x-rays.
How do you think the folks in the ER would classify road rash?
Quoted message said:You never mention Moritz' finding that
cyclists are--what is it?--30 times more likely to be injured per mile
than drivers. This is from a survey that
you claim to have helped design, iirc. How come you never
mention it?
Hmm. I think certain fumes must be getting thick in the room where
you're typing, R15757! I had nothing to do with Moritz's survey
(except being a respondent), and I _certainly_ never claimed to have
helped design it!
Regarding the "30 times more likely to be injured per mile," I see
nothing about that in Moritz's paper. Maybe I missed it. Please give
a detailed citation, including what's being counted as an "injury" ...
or, if necessary, let us know you made that one up too.
Quoted message said:Quoted message said:Moritz's data indicated that the riders surveyed in a national survey,
who rode over 2500 miles per year, crashed badly enough to do $50
damage, or seek cheap (average $125) medical treatment only once in 11
years.
The average respondent in that survey of LAB members was
47 and had been riding regularly for over 14 years. How
come you didn't mention that?
??? Well, I could, I guess. do you want me to re-type the entire
paper???
Quoted message said:How come you don't mention
that beginning riders are five times more likely to crash
and be injured as a rider with just ten years of
experience, a number that is well accepted by long time
cyclists?
I hate to echo you, but: Can you give the specific source for that
number, and can you tell how it was determined?
It may be true, of course. However, there's that unspecified "be
injured" thing again. And there's the question of the validity of
_that_ data.
Quoted message said:And you wouldn't want to mention that the
crash rate of those LAB cyclists would actually give
a high-mileage rider like me EIGHT injurious crashes
so far in my cycling career. That's a few too many,
wouldn't you say?
I have no idea. All I seem to recall about your riding is that you
disobey traffic laws fairly frequently (because you know better than
mere law-abiding cyclists), and that you were hit while running a red
light. But I admit, I could be thinking of someone else. The
anonymous bike messengers tend to be hard to tell apart!
Quoted message said:Quoted message said:If I bent my rear derailleur, it would cost me more than $50. (It's
never happened to me, but _somebody_ has to do better than average.)
If it did happen, I'd say "OK, that would be a data point in Moritz's
study; but I still can't pretend cycling is dangerous."
The AVERAGE '50$ crash' in that survey was actually
a 300$+ crash in terms of property damage. How come
you don't mention that?
For those who need to review the math: Moritz gave "mean" figure for
property damage, and he gave the "median." Both are ways of computing
what lay people call the "average." "Mean" is the more common way, but
it's seriously biased by one outlying point. In other words, the
"mean" of the salaries of Bill Gates, a butcher, a baker, a candlestick
maker and a bike messenger would be many millions of dollars. But it
would not represent anything like the "typical" salary!
"Median" does not suffer from this weakness. The "median" of those
salaries would be the one in the middle... probably the baker's. And
it would be more meaningful, if you want to understand what people
typically make.
Moritz's "mean" property damage was, indeed, $316, which must have
included some very expensive crashes. The "median" property damage was
$100. And these were for respondents whose mean annual expenditure on
cycling was $1100 - quite a lot, I'd say! (At least, I don't come
close to spending $1100 per year!) We may be seeing bias caused by a
population with unusually expensive bikes.
Quoted message said:And I guess you are too
inexperienced in these matters to realize that a
crash that does just 50$ of damage is also likely to
injure the rider.
Well, I will admit to being _very_ inexperienced at crashing! The only
moving on-road fall I've had since the early 1970s tore my windbreaker.
The jacket was not worth $50, BTW. I did scratch my knee (the dreaded
"minor injury of a lower extremity!!!"😉 but I put the bandaid on
myself. ;-)
But still - if I'd dropped my bike on my derailleur, that would mean
I'd be injured??
Quoted message said:You just explained why traffic is dangerous for
drivers, cyclists, and pedestrians.
Gosh, don't stop there! There's basketball, there's touch football,
there's backyard baseball, there are ladders, there are stairs, there's
ice skating, there's jogging, there's swimming, boating, playground
equipment, climbing trees, jumping rope, working on cars, eating fast
food, and typing stuff for the internet! (CARPAL TUNNEL!!! CARPAL
TUNNEL!!!)
Why not find something else to whine about? Leave cycling alone.
- Frank Krygowski
Quoted message said:
Robert