On 17 Jul 2006 20:49:45 -0700, "
[email protected]" <
[email protected]>
wrote:
>Glad to read other peoples opinions.. my grandfather once said hr
>thought hard top automobiles were top heavy and would never own one ..
>he said gasoline was too damn expensive when it hit 6 cents a gallon
>horses were more reliable than the automobile. 1902 Ferdinand Porsche
>at age 27 working for Lohner developed hub motors which initially ran
>on lead acid batteries and soon after had a petrol generator to charge
>the batteries: the first Hybrid vehicles.
>
>new ebike cost ? 500-1000
Range on a charge: 15 miles. Life expectancy: 7500 miles (being
generous.) That's 500 full-charge cycles (which won't happen on a
single set of lead-acid batteries), and 10 cents per mile for original
purchase cost across the life of the bike at $750 initial cost.
new Trek 7000 without electric motor: $269 Range: limited only by
the rider. Life expectancy: Unknown, typically Treks outlast the
rider. Taking 15000 miles as a minimal figure, that's 1.8 cents per
mile.
>new porsche ? 87-141,000
If you think anyone's going to accept your Model-T-level electric
conversion as being comparable in tech to a Porsche, you need to have
your business plan reexamined by a competent financial adviser.
I will note that Dr. Porsche designed a hub-motor system for the
Wehrmacht, but that the technology was not extensively deployed and
was scrapped after the war. Hub-motor systems are not new.
> electric bicycle is silent, does
>> >not stink or vibrate, is inexpensive and reliable.
>
>Electric
>
>> Silent? That depends on the system employed.
>>
>> As for their being reliable, that can't be established until there are
>> a lot more of them on the road...but my direct experience is that the
>> majority of the currently marketed electric bikes are *not* reliable,
>> nor are they practical as transport for someone who must commute the
>> typical 15 to 20 miles each way, even in the relatively flat environs
>> where I live.
>>
>The average automobile use in America is only 9 miles per day travel
>done by 1.3 people per auto.
Where do you get that? The figures I've seen say it's more like 1.06
people per mile travelled. Although the national average is about 9
miles per day, the typical commute in *your* city is 22 miles each
way. The interest in alternate forms of transport goes down as the
commute gets shorter, so your most fertile potential commuter market
is in precisely the segment that your device does not serve; the
people commuting from outside the Belt to inside the Loop.
>> [1] For purposes of discussion, I currently consider that an
>> electric-assist bike must have a range of 35 miles at no less than 90%
>> of average top speed with a 200 lb rider on level terrain, a battery
>> recharge time of one hour after a 35 mile run, a battery life of 1000
>> recharge cycles, a half-life to failure of the control system, wiring
>> and motor of at least 30000Km, and a completely tool-less recharging
>> procedure before it can meet a reasonable minimal definition of
>> potentially useful for the average general-public rider. Furthermore,
>> if the cost exceeds $400 over the price of a typical decent bike, I
>> question whether it can get market acceptance in any event. Anything
>> less in performance, or higher in price, is a niche-market specialty
>> vehicle.
>
>Ask General Motors to build you the same car fitting your requirements
>for $400
Actually, every major automaker currently sells vehicles with a
significantly lower per-mile cost, amortized over the life expectancy
of the unit, than your electric bike, taking the figures mentioned
above...and that's assuming that the replacement batteries are treated
as a maintenance cost. Yes, the "fuel cost" is lower, but the
perceived value of the transport capability delivered is, to the
average transport user, far lower for an electric bike than for an
automobile.
And what's the recharge time? None of the sites selling this product
seem to admit what is probable. I see things that make me believe
it's likely to be 5 to 20 hours depending on the battery pack and
charger employed, but nothing is explicitly stated.
This product will not attract many bike enthusiasts. Its potential
market is with the people who presently regard a bike as unacceptably
strenuous to employ, but otherwise potentially useful; there is no
estimate that I could find for the likely size of this market, but I
don't think it's as large (at this time) as it needs to be in order
for such products to be mass-market viable. Pacific is experimenting
with it, though, so we may see some harder data soon.
--
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