After his great TDF, Evans simply has to be red hot favorite for Vuelta. It much depends on how he used these five weeks to recover and prepare for another three weeks of hard racing. This Vuelta demands top form during all three weeks, so maybe it will be to much for TDF riders.
Menchov has to be considered as second favorite. He'll want to save his GT season after unexpected change of role in Tour, also he's ex winner, but he'll surely like to win it on the road.
Sastre should do great race in his home tour, but that first, specialists', TT will force him to attack in mountains... After TDF, maybe it'll be too much for him.
Pereiro will try to use this opportunity to impose himself as a Caisse leader for next season in this Valverde situation. But again, he's not extraordinary climber nor TTist and his freshness is doubtful too.
Cunego can climb, but not much better than Evans (if at all), Sastre and Menchov, and they all are significantly better against clock than him.
Marchante, same as Cunego.
Samuel Sanchez can follow in the mountains and can limit losses in TTs, but that's not enough for overall victory... He has to attack at some point and I'm not sure if he's able.
Devolder is having a great season... Huge improvement in his climbing and always good in TTs. He missed the Tour 'cause of Vuelta and there's maybe his chance, he's fresher and could take advantage when someone from above has a bad day.
And at the end, it's home tour for Spaniards, so expect some surprises from Spanish climbers.
