Lance keeps it tactical

[Bill C]

I was wrong. I really thought that lance was going to drop the hammer
on the last climb. Have to wonder if Hincappie being up the road might
have changed the plan.
Bill C

 

[Ewoud Dronkert]

On 17 Jul 2005 08:31:17 -0700, Bill C wrote:
> I was wrong. I really thought that lance was going to drop the hammer
> on the last climb. Have to wonder if Hincappie being up the road might
> have changed the plan.

No, he would never have caught him. I think he was happy staying with
Basso. Basso looked like he may have been the strongest today. If not,
Armstrong could maybe have set him back 20 seconds with a whole lot of
effort. Not necessary.

--
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[gwhite]

Ewoud Dronkert wrote:
>
> On 17 Jul 2005 08:31:17 -0700, Bill C wrote:
> > I was wrong. I really thought that lance was going to drop the hammer
> > on the last climb. Have to wonder if Hincappie being up the road might
> > have changed the plan.
>
> No, he would never have caught him. I think he was happy staying with
> Basso. Basso looked like he may have been the strongest today. If not,
> Armstrong could maybe have set him back 20 seconds with a whole lot of
> effort. Not necessary.

Exactly. GH and OP too far away for Lance to win. And there were no
other rivals left but Basso, who doesn't match up in the TT. Lance
should win #7 by 5 min over Basso.

 

[Bill C]

gwhite wrote:
> Ewoud Dronkert wrote:
> >
> > On 17 Jul 2005 08:31:17 -0700, Bill C wrote:
> > > I was wrong. I really thought that lance was going to drop the hammer
> > > on the last climb. Have to wonder if Hincappie being up the road might
> > > have changed the plan.
> >
> > No, he would never have caught him. I think he was happy staying with
> > Basso. Basso looked like he may have been the strongest today. If not,
> > Armstrong could maybe have set him back 20 seconds with a whole lot of
> > effort. Not necessary.
>
> Exactly. GH and OP too far away for Lance to win. And there were no
> other rivals left but Basso, who doesn't match up in the TT. Lance
> should win #7 by 5 min over Basso.
I'm not sure now that Jan can pull out 3 minutes from Rasmussen before
Paris either. I can't believe how hard he's hung in there.
Bill C

 

[Steve Blankenship]

"Bill C" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
>
>
> gwhite wrote:
> > Ewoud Dronkert wrote:
> > >
> > > On 17 Jul 2005 08:31:17 -0700, Bill C wrote:
> > > > I was wrong. I really thought that lance was going to drop the
hammer
> > > > on the last climb. Have to wonder if Hincappie being up the road
might
> > > > have changed the plan.
> > >
> > > No, he would never have caught him. I think he was happy staying with
> > > Basso. Basso looked like he may have been the strongest today. If not,
> > > Armstrong could maybe have set him back 20 seconds with a whole lot of
> > > effort. Not necessary.
> >
> > Exactly. GH and OP too far away for Lance to win. And there were no
> > other rivals left but Basso, who doesn't match up in the TT. Lance
> > should win #7 by 5 min over Basso.
> I'm not sure now that Jan can pull out 3 minutes from Rasmussen before
> Paris either. I can't believe how hard he's hung in there.
> Bill C
>

Be interesting to see how 3-6 end up. Ulrich might be able to take back the
2:49 in the last TT alone, assuming his first TT was a bad day. After all,
Rasmussen lost well over 3 minutes to Lance in only 19km in the first TT.
The other placing will be interesting to watch too, assuming the top guys
don't shuffle any more on GC before St. Etienne. Mancebo for example, lost
a bit over a minute and Rasmussen about two to Landis and Leipheimer in the
first TT. In a TT over twice as long, 20 days in.....

Chicken better be flapping his wings between now and then!

 

[[email protected]]

Bill C wrote:
> I'm not sure now that Jan can pull out 3 minutes from Rasmussen before
> Paris either. I can't believe how hard he's hung in there.

Jan? Chicken? <g>

Enjoy the coverage today, Bill? --TP

 

[Bill C]

[email protected] wrote:
> Bill C wrote:
> > I'm not sure now that Jan can pull out 3 minutes from Rasmussen before
> > Paris either. I can't believe how hard he's hung in there.
>
> Jan? Chicken? <g>
>
> Enjoy the coverage today, Bill? --TP
Glad to see George finally have the chance, and get it done, but
watching Jan keep yo-yoing from Lance and Basso was murder, though I
think if he'd gotten back they would've gone again. Then to see
Rasmussen come back into the shot was brutal.
I think Jan's finally recovering from the crashes and should be at his
very best for the last TT since he now knows he's racing for 3rd unless
something really bad happens. It'll be interesting to see how Rabobank
play it. Tuesday could be brutal for T-Mobile, if Rabo decides to try
and get some more time for Rasmussen. They'd have to do most of the
work unless the gap really started to open up.
Of course nothing could happen too, and they all could just watch each
other and recover for the TT. Strategy is going to be really
interesting to watch play out. I'm betting on it being a defensive day
unless someone looks like they are in real trouble. I think we might
see Vino go in an early break Tuesday though. It's the only thing that
would make sense for him.
Gonna be fun.
Bill C

 

[Geraard Spergen]

"Bill C" <[email protected]> schreef:
> Of course nothing could happen too, and they all could just watch each
> other and recover for the TT. Strategy is going to be really
> interesting to watch play out. I'm betting on it being a defensive day
> unless someone looks like they are in real trouble. I think we might
> see Vino go in an early break Tuesday though. It's the only thing that
> would make sense for him.
> Gonna be fun.
> Bill C
>

Very impressive how many times Vino came back from the dead today.

 

[[email protected]]

Bill C wrote:
> [email protected] wrote:
> > Enjoy the coverage today, Bill?

(Bill C replied):

[yes]

> I think Jan's finally recovering from the crashes and should be at his
> very best for the last TT since he now knows he's racing for 3rd unless
> something really bad happens.

Oh yeah, hell of a way to rehab but he is burning. Almost there today,
given a successful rest day regimen (there's a guesser) and some more
of that good mountainclimbing r'n'r, he could be flying.

> Of course nothing could happen too, and they all could just watch each
> other and recover for the TT. Strategy is going to be really
> interesting to watch play out. I'm betting on it being a defensive day
> unless someone looks like they are in real trouble. I think we might
> see Vino go in an early break Tuesday though. It's the only thing that
> would make sense for him.

No guts, no glory. Anybody else trying harder?

> Gonna be fun.

By the expression on his face, Lance is getting pushed good and hard.
He's got to negotiate that rest day, too, for all his expertise (and
help) in these TdF things.

Bernucci. Weening. Totschnig. Hincapie. More to come. --TP

 

[Ewoud Dronkert]

[email protected] wrote:
> Bernucci. Weening. Totschnig. Hincapie. More to come. --TP

Beautiful wins? Don´t forget Rasmussen´s big breakaway!

 

[Tom Kunich]

"Ewoud Dronkert" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> On 17 Jul 2005 08:31:17 -0700, Bill C wrote:
>> I was wrong. I really thought that lance was going to drop the hammer
>> on the last climb. Have to wonder if Hincappie being up the road might
>> have changed the plan.
>
> No, he would never have caught him. I think he was happy staying with
> Basso. Basso looked like he may have been the strongest today. If not,
> Armstrong could maybe have set him back 20 seconds with a whole lot of
> effort. Not necessary.

Where's Robert when we really need him. I'm expecting to discover that this
race is the fastest Tour of all time. Those DC's aren't getting dropped
because they're out of shape.

 

[RonSonic]

On Sun, 17 Jul 2005 17:58:39 +0200, Ewoud Dronkert
<[email protected]> wrote:

>On 17 Jul 2005 08:31:17 -0700, Bill C wrote:
>> I was wrong. I really thought that lance was going to drop the hammer
>> on the last climb. Have to wonder if Hincappie being up the road might
>> have changed the plan.
>
>No, he would never have caught him. I think he was happy staying with
>Basso. Basso looked like he may have been the strongest today. If not,
>Armstrong could maybe have set him back 20 seconds with a whole lot of
>effort. Not necessary.

It looked like LA tested Basso out a little, a few bursts here and there that
Basso just took in stride, and he decided against it.

Basso was looking very smooth and strong out there today.

Ron

 

[Joseph J. Hurley]

I think it is actually tradition that you do not attempt to catch a
breakaway in which one of your teammates is a member.

I have seen several stages were a group was trying to pull back a breakaway
and one of the members of the group had a teammate in the breakaway and the
commentators said, "Well, X is in this group but he's just playing policeman
taking everyone's ticket; nobody expects him to do any work since he has a
teammate in the break."

Joe Hurle


On 7/17/05 11:31 AM, in article
[email protected], "Bill C"
<[email protected]> wrote:

> I was wrong. I really thought that lance was going to drop the hammer
> on the last climb. Have to wonder if Hincappie being up the road might
> have changed the plan.
> Bill C
>

 

[Morten Reippuert Knudsen]

gwhite <[email protected]> wrote:

> Exactly. GH and OP too far away for Lance to win. And there were no
> other rivals left but Basso, who doesn't match up in the TT. Lance
> should win #7 by 5 min over Basso.

We will see, Basso did dissapoint on the first short _flat_ iTT.

The second iTT has a cat3 and its uphill for 2/3 of the stage.
Basso is currently in better shape than, in the first week and i
expect him do better than in the Giro, where he was second behind
Zabriskie on the first flat iTT, and burried everyone on the second iTT
with a similar profile to the remaing 55km TT. He might win, but
neither Armstrong or Ulrich will take more than a minutte from Basso
on the remaining iTT.

--
Morten Reippuert Knudsen <http://blog.reippuert.dk>

PowerMac G5: 1.6GHz, 1.25GB RAM, 300+300GB SATA, 8xDVD+/-RW, Bluetooth
mus + tastatur, R9600PRO, iSight, eyeTV200 & LaCie Photon18Vision TFT

 

[Morten Reippuert Knudsen]

Bill C <[email protected]> wrote:


> I'm not sure now that Jan can pull out 3 minutes from Rasmussen before
> Paris either. I can't believe how hard he's hung in there.

M.Rasmussen will have to gain time on Ulrich before the iTT. Even
though M.Rasmussen rides the iTT of his life 2:49 wont be enough to
keep Ulrich away. However M.Rasmussen has stage 18 in sight and he
should be able to take 20-40 seconds from Ulrich with a darry decent
form the cat3 and an explosive ride up the final cat2.

Stage 9, 15 and 18 where M.Rasmussen's prime targets before the tour
started. He has already won stage 9, he did the final climb on stage
15 faster than anyone else - i think will take stage 18 as well. He
will be even more motivated because he needs to take time from
J.Ulrich.

--
Morten Reippuert Knudsen <http://blog.reippuert.dk>

PowerMac G5: 1.6GHz, 1.25GB RAM, 300+300GB SATA, 8xDVD+/-RW, Bluetooth
mus + tastatur, R9600PRO, iSight, eyeTV200 & LaCie Photon18Vision TFT

 

[Morten Reippuert Knudsen]

Steve Blankenship <[email protected]> wrote:

> Be interesting to see how 3-6 end up. Ulrich might be able to take back the
> 2:49 in the last TT alone, assuming his first TT was a bad day. After all,
> Rasmussen lost well over 3 minutes to Lance in only 19km in the first TT.
> The other placing will be interesting to watch too, assuming the top guys
> don't shuffle any more on GC before St. Etienne. Mancebo for example, lost
> a bit over a minute and Rasmussen about two to Landis and Leipheimer in the
> first TT. In a TT over twice as long, 20 days in.....

Don't forget that the profile of the first iTT was flat, the second
iTT is mosty uphill and downhill - only 10-15km are flat.
It should suit I.Basso with his improved TT capability very well, and
could prove to be just enough for M.Rasmussen.

> Chicken better be flapping his wings between now and then!

look forwared to stage 18

--
Morten Reippuert Knudsen <http://blog.reippuert.dk>

PowerMac G5: 1.6GHz, 1.25GB RAM, 300+300GB SATA, 8xDVD+/-RW, Bluetooth
mus + tastatur, R9600PRO, iSight, eyeTV200 & LaCie Photon18Vision TFT

 

[Mad Dog]

Ewoud Dronkert says...

>On 17 Jul 2005 08:31:17 -0700, Bill C wrote:
>> I was wrong. I really thought that lance was going to drop the hammer
>> on the last climb. Have to wonder if Hincappie being up the road might
>> have changed the plan.

>No, he would never have caught him. I think he was happy staying with
>Basso. Basso looked like he may have been the strongest today. If not,
>Armstrong could maybe have set him back 20 seconds with a whole lot of
>effort. Not necessary.

I don't think Lance played his cards so how do we know if Basso was stronger?
And clearly, Basso either couldn't shake Lance or was unwilling to risk it. If
he was stronger, why didn't he prove it?

 

[Mad Dog]

Morten Reippuert Knudsen says...

>Don't forget that the profile of the first iTT was flat, the second
>iTT is mosty uphill and downhill - only 10-15km are flat.
>It should suit I.Basso with his improved TT capability very well, and
>could prove to be just enough for M.Rasmussen.

You're dreaming.

 

[gwhite]

Steve Blankenship wrote:
>

> After all, Rasmussen lost well over 3 minutes to
> Lance in only 19km in the first TT.


MR probably "didn't care" at that point of the race -- so he might do a
bit better comparatively now that it does matter to him.


But MR will get dusted by at least 3 min by Ullrich, even if MR does try
his hardest.

 

[Morten Reippuert Knudsen]

Mad Dog <[email protected]> wrote:
> Morten Reippuert Knudsen says...

> >Don't forget that the profile of the first iTT was flat, the second
> >iTT is mosty uphill and downhill - only 10-15km are flat.
> >It should suit I.Basso with his improved TT capability very well, and
> >could prove to be just enough for M.Rasmussen.

> You're dreaming.

about what? The profile and Basso's chances of winning it, or that the
profile will help M.Rasmussen to keep J.Ulrich away?

--
Morten Reippuert Knudsen <http://blog.reippuert.dk>

PowerMac G5: 1.6GHz, 1.25GB RAM, 300+300GB SATA, 8xDVD+/-RW, Bluetooth
mus + tastatur, R9600PRO, iSight, eyeTV200 & LaCie Photon18Vision TFT