Does Boonen winning first four help George @ P-R?

[crit PRO]

Reigning World Champion Tom Boonen has won all four races he has
competed in to start out 2006. Is it too early to be in such fine form,
and does that mean that come Classics' Season in April, that he will be
overdone.

Since the main challenger for Tom in Paris-Roubaix is George Hincapie,
does this early success bode well for the Discovery rider?

crit PRO

 

[B. Lafferty]

"crit PRO" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> Since the main challenger for Tom in Paris-Roubaix is George Hincapie,

ROTFL!

 

[Geraard Spergen]

crit PRO wrote:
> Reigning World Champion Tom Boonen has won all four races he has
> competed in to start out 2006. Is it too early to be in such fine form,
> and does that mean that come Classics' Season in April, that he will be
> overdone.
>
> Since the main challenger for Tom in Paris-Roubaix is George Hincapie,
> does this early success bode well for the Discovery rider?
>
> crit PRO
>

George is putting all his eggs in the TdF basket this year... probably
won't race PR at all.

 

[MagillaGorilla]

crit PRO wrote:

> Reigning World Champion Tom Boonen has won all four races he has
> competed in to start out 2006. Is it too early to be in such fine form,
> and does that mean that come Classics' Season in April, that he will be
> overdone.
>
> Since the main challenger for Tom in Paris-Roubaix is George Hincapie,
> does this early success bode well for the Discovery rider?
>
> crit PRO
>


Probability statistics say neither Boonen nor Hincapie will likely be on
the podium at Paris-Roubaix this year.


Magilla

 

[Scott]

Geraard Spergen wrote:
> crit PRO wrote:
> > Reigning World Champion Tom Boonen has won all four races he has
> > competed in to start out 2006. Is it too early to be in such fine form,
> > and does that mean that come Classics' Season in April, that he will be
> > overdone.
> >
> > Since the main challenger for Tom in Paris-Roubaix is George Hincapie,
> > does this early success bode well for the Discovery rider?
> >
> > crit PRO
> >
>
> George is putting all his eggs in the TdF basket this year... probably
> won't race PR at all.

Curious, but how do you know this?

 

[tony]

MagillaGorilla wrote:
> crit PRO wrote:
>
> > Reigning World Champion Tom Boonen has won all four races he has
> > competed in to start out 2006. Is it too early to be in such fine form,
> > and does that mean that come Classics' Season in April, that he will be
> > overdone.
> >
> > Since the main challenger for Tom in Paris-Roubaix is George Hincapie,
> > does this early success bode well for the Discovery rider?
> >
> > crit PRO
> >
>
>
> Probability statistics say neither Boonen nor Hincapie will likely be on
> the podium at Paris-Roubaix this year.
>
>
> Magilla

Actually- there is more of a chance of a podium finisher repeating on
the podium the following year. Since 1975- there have been 18 years in
which there is a repeat podium finish and 13 years without.

 

[tony]

Correction- at Paris-Roubaix since 1975, there have been 19 editions of
the race in which there has been a rider repeating on the podium from
the previous year. In those 31 years, there has been a total of 22
times where a rider making the podium placed on the podium in the
previous years race. (3 years had two repeaters).

In the last 50 years at P-R, there have been 27 editions in which a
podium spot was won by a rider from the previous year's podium and a
total of 33 riders have seen the podium afterr making it the previous
year. 18 times it was that year's winner who had been on the previous
year's podium, 6 times it was the second place rider, 9 times it was
the third place rider.

No prizes for guessing which rider had the most repeat podiums at P-R
in the last 50 years. Roger de Vlaeminck did it 5 times, Johan Museeuw
did it 4 times and Francesco Moser had 3 repeat appearances.

 

[DepartFictif]

Mark my words... Mayo will win Paris Roubaix.
Hincapi goes for the tour?!?!... hmmm... can I get some?

 

[DepartFictif]

BIG news.. this just in:

Philip Ermanault returns to cycling to target the Trophee des
Grimpeurs, Classic des Alpes, and Mountain Jersey of the Tour du Pays
Basque...

It's gonna be a great year for cycling lads. Next thing you know I'll
be world champion and Crit Pro will claim the hour record...

 

[benjo maso]

"tony" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> Correction- at Paris-Roubaix since 1975, there have been 19 editions of
> the race in which there has been a rider repeating on the podium from
> the previous year. In those 31 years, there has been a total of 22
> times where a rider making the podium placed on the podium in the
> previous years race. (3 years had two repeaters).
>
> In the last 50 years at P-R, there have been 27 editions in which a
> podium spot was won by a rider from the previous year's podium and a
> total of 33 riders have seen the podium afterr making it the previous
> year. 18 times it was that year's winner who had been on the previous
> year's podium, 6 times it was the second place rider, 9 times it was
> the third place rider.
>
> No prizes for guessing which rider had the most repeat podiums at P-R
> in the last 50 years. Roger de Vlaeminck did it 5 times, Johan Museeuw
> did it 4 times and Francesco Moser had 3 repeat appearances.


Roger de Vlaeminck did it even 6 times. Ballerini, Van Looy and Merckx (of
course!) had also 3 repeat appearances on the podium.

Benjo

 

[MagillaGorilla]

tony wrote:

> MagillaGorilla wrote:
>
>>crit PRO wrote:
>>
>>
>>>Reigning World Champion Tom Boonen has won all four races he has
>>>competed in to start out 2006. Is it too early to be in such fine form,
>>>and does that mean that come Classics' Season in April, that he will be
>>>overdone.
>>>
>>>Since the main challenger for Tom in Paris-Roubaix is George Hincapie,
>>>does this early success bode well for the Discovery rider?
>>>
>>>crit PRO
>>>
>>
>>
>>Probability statistics say neither Boonen nor Hincapie will likely be on
>>the podium at Paris-Roubaix this year.
>>
>>
>>Magilla
>
>
> Actually- there is more of a chance of a podium finisher repeating on
> the podium the following year. Since 1975- there have been 18 years in
> which there is a repeat podium finish and 13 years without.
>

Before making that prediction, you'd have to know if the top 3 from last
year are even going to start P-R. You have no way of knowing that at
this point in time.

Consequently, I reject your theory.

Magilla

 

[tony]

Benjo- by my count RdV made the P-R podium 8 times but my point was
that he only had 5 times in which he repeated on the podium from one
year to the next.

72 1st
74 1st
75 1st (first repeat)
76 3rd (second repeat)
77 1st (third repeat)
78 2nd (fourth repeat)
79 2nd (fifth repeat)
81 2nd

In other words, a riders first appearance on the podium does not count
as a "repeat", it's only when he shows up the following year that I
count as a repeat.

 

[tony]

I didn't offer a theory or prediction, just some facts. I didn't
predict whether Hincapie or Boonen specifically would make the podium
in April, just pointed out that there have been more times when a P-R
podium placer repeats than not in the last 50 years. As they say in
the adverts- past performance is no predictor of future performance-
place your money at mr.bookmaker.com at your own risk.

 

[[email protected]]

What about Museeuw? The (at least one) 1-2-3 mapei finish(es) were not
contested sprints; the team bosses arranged them. How would "real"
sprints have re-arranged history? I seem to recall Tafi not being too
happy being relegated to super-domestiq status on that team. He was no
slouch. Or have I been drinking too much citrus cleaner?

 

[Michael Press]

In article <[email protected]>,
MagillaGorilla <[email protected]> wrote:

> tony wrote:
>
> > MagillaGorilla wrote:
> >
> >>crit PRO wrote:
> >>
> >>
> >>>Reigning World Champion Tom Boonen has won all four races he has
> >>>competed in to start out 2006. Is it too early to be in such fine form,
> >>>and does that mean that come Classics' Season in April, that he will be
> >>>overdone.
> >>>
> >>>Since the main challenger for Tom in Paris-Roubaix is George Hincapie,
> >>>does this early success bode well for the Discovery rider?
> >>>
> >>>crit PRO
> >>>
> >>
> >>
> >>Probability statistics say neither Boonen nor Hincapie will likely be on
> >>the podium at Paris-Roubaix this year.
> >>
> >>
> >>Magilla
> >
> >
> > Actually- there is more of a chance of a podium finisher repeating on
> > the podium the following year. Since 1975- there have been 18 years in
> > which there is a repeat podium finish and 13 years without.
> >
>
> Before making that prediction, you'd have to know if the top 3 from last
> year are even going to start P-R. You have no way of knowing that at
> this point in time.
>
> Consequently, I reject your theory.

I see your point but it does not apply. The data quoted
does not restrict itself to races that started with a
podium finisher from the previous year.

--
Michael Press

 

[crit PRO]

I'd bet $1000 Boonen crashes in P-r 2006, and does not finish. Except
the prime money has been a little sparse the past two months.

crit PRO

 

[benjo maso]

"tony" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> Benjo- by my count RdV made the P-R podium 8 times but my point was
> that he only had 5 times in which he repeated on the podium from one
> year to the next.
>
> 72 1st
> 74 1st
> 75 1st (first repeat)
> 76 3rd (second repeat)
> 77 1st (third repeat)
> 78 2nd (fourth repeat)
> 79 2nd (fifth repeat)
> 81 2nd
>
> In other words, a riders first appearance on the podium does not count
> as a "repeat", it's only when he shows up the following year that I
> count as a repeat.


You're right! Next time I'll try to read it better

Benjo

 

[benjo maso]

<[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> What about Museeuw? The (at least one) 1-2-3 mapei finish(es) were not
> contested sprints; the team bosses arranged them. How would "real"
> sprints have re-arranged history? I seem to recall Tafi not being too
> happy being relegated to super-domestiq status on that team. He was no
> slouch. Or have I been drinking too much citrus cleaner?


No, you're quite right. Tafi wasn't happy at all and didn't made a secret of
it.

Benjo

 

[[email protected]]

benjo maso wrote:
> <[email protected]> wrote in message
> news:[email protected]...
> > What about Museeuw? The (at least one) 1-2-3 mapei finish(es) were not
> > contested sprints; the team bosses arranged them. How would "real"
> > sprints have re-arranged history? I seem to recall Tafi not being too
> > happy being relegated to super-domestiq status on that team. He was no
> > slouch. Or have I been drinking too much citrus cleaner?
>
>
> No, you're quite right. Tafi wasn't happy at all and didn't made a secret of
> it.
>
> Benjo

I thought it was Bortolami that was the most unhappy, crossing the line
with a frown. Tafi was 'only' lobbying for second place due to the
birth of his second child.

 

[crit PRO]

Michael Press wrote:
> In article <[email protected]>,
> MagillaGorilla <[email protected]> wrote:
>
> > tony wrote:
> >
> > > MagillaGorilla wrote:
> > >
> > >>crit PRO wrote:
> > >>
> > >>
> > >>>Reigning World Champion Tom Boonen has won all four races he has
> > >>>competed in to start out 2006. Is it too early to be in such fine form,
> > >>>and does that mean that come Classics' Season in April, that he will be
> > >>>overdone.
> > >>>
> > >>>Since the main challenger for Tom in Paris-Roubaix is George Hincapie,
> > >>>does this early success bode well for the Discovery rider?
> > >>>
> > >>>crit PRO
> > >>>
> > >>
> > >>
> > >>Probability statistics say neither Boonen nor Hincapie will likely be on
> > >>the podium at Paris-Roubaix this year.
> > >>
> > >>
> > >>Magilla
> > >
> > >
> > > Actually- there is more of a chance of a podium finisher repeating on
> > > the podium the following year. Since 1975- there have been 18 years in
> > > which there is a repeat podium finish and 13 years without.
> > >
> >
> > Before making that prediction, you'd have to know if the top 3 from last
> > year are even going to start P-R. You have no way of knowing that at
> > this point in time.
> >
> > Consequently, I reject your theory.
>
> I see your point but it does not apply. The data quoted
> does not restrict itself to races that started with a
> podium finisher from the previous year.
>
> --
> Michael Press

Looks like Tom reads RBR:

http://www.cyclingnews.com/road.php?id=road/2006/jan06/qatar06/qatar065

Even though he has won five races from six starts so far this season,
Boonen says he is not yet in his best condition. "The Tour of the Qatar
was above all a good test for the team from the perspective of the
sprints," he said. "From a purely personal perspective it has allowed
me to fine-tune my condition. I can assure you that I am not yet in my
best form.

"For Milan-San Remo I will be ten percent stronger and by the Tour of
Flanders I will have improved 20 percent," he joked.


"Or so the labels on the bottles of drugs tell me."