Tour de France predictions

[moviekindoflife]

A good and hopeful thought as it would make it more exciting. The flats are not very exciting as a rule.

i agree, we have been talking a lot about DSC, TMO, and CSC, but i hope we see a lot of teams taking a great deal of interest. a lot of guys that didn't have team support last year have been pledged complete support this time around (Landis and Vino especially).

Back to the betting thing, i saw a site that gave Tom Danielson 33 to 1 odds at winning the tour. i bet good old tommy d put a couple thousand bucks down on himself to win the tour this year.

http://www.paddypower.com/bet?actio...ss_id=70&id=5718&category=SPORTS&disp_cat_id=

 

[limerickman]

i have very good contacts inside the Rabobank team: the word is Rasmussen is NOT out of form.the reason he collapsed during his solo at the TdS was that Rabo wasn't allowed to supply him with food and drinks, the gap between Moos and Rasmussen wasn't big enough and the team car had to stay behind Moos. Breukink was really mad!

Rasmussen should have good support at the TDF from Rabo.
Freire stated that in a recent Cycle Sport interview that he would be prapred to ride support for Ras.

I like Rabo as a team - and I always admired Breukink - he was a gutsy rider.

 

[jhuskey]

Got'a have hope JH.

It's what makes that little old ant think he can move that Rubber Tree plant.

lw

They just told the DEA it was a rubber tree plant.

 

[lwedge]

They just told the DEA it was a rubber tree plant.

LOL !

 

[EvilJediJ]

Odds are like stocks they are made by the people buying/betting. The bookies don't make the odds, the people betting on them do. The goal is to have an even number of bets among all the riders. Meaning the bookies want 50 people to bet on Basso, 50 people to bet on Ullrich 50 people to bet on Contador and 50 people to bet on Horner. The bookies will adjust the odds till they get an even spread of bets across everybody.

 

[moviekindoflife]

Odds are like stocks they are made by the people buying/betting. The bookies don't make the odds, the people betting on them do. The goal is to have an even number of bets among all the riders. Meaning the bookies want 50 people to bet on Basso, 50 people to bet on Ullrich 50 people to bet on Contador and 50 people to bet on Horner. The bookies will adjust the odds till they get an even spread of bets across everybody.

that makes sense, but i still dont understand why some are including riders that aren't riding. Does a rider get included just because someone bets on him and then they adjust the odds to bring in more bets? Or do they start with a list and adjust the odds on each rider according to how the bets come in?

 

[EvilJediJ]

that makes sense, but i still dont understand why some are including riders that aren't riding. Does a rider get included just because someone bets on him and then they adjust the odds to bring in more bets? Or do they start with a list and adjust the odds on each rider according to how the bets come in?

The bookies probably made a list before the start list was actually given out. They are taking bets now, even though Jan Ullrich could get in a car accident tomorow and not race. The bookies will of course allow you to bet on someone who doesn't actually ride in the race...your loss.

I should also amend what I said earlier. The bookies want an even amount of money dispersed over all the riders, not an even amount of bets. Obviously if 50 people bet on Basso at +100, and Basso wins the bookies have to give out 5000 dollars. If 50 people bet on Horner at 5000 then they would have to give out 25000 dollars. The bookies goal is to set the odds so that no matter who wins they are giving out the same amount of money.

So if ten people bet on Basso he would be at +100 and 1 person bets on Levi then Levi would be at +1000.

 

[moviekindoflife]

The bookies probably made a list before the start list was actually given out. They are taking bets now, even though Jan Ullrich could get in a car accident tomorow and not race. The bookies will of course allow you to bet on someone who doesn't actually ride in the race...your loss.

I should also amend what I said earlier. The bookies want an even amount of money dispersed over all the riders, not an even amount of bets. Obviously if 50 people bet on Basso at +100, and Basso wins the bookies have to give out 5000 dollars. If 50 people bet on Horner at 5000 then they would have to give out 25000 dollars. The bookies goal is to set the odds so that no matter who wins they are giving out the same amount of money.

So if ten people bet on Basso he would be at +100 and 1 person bets on Levi then Levi would be at +1000.

thanks for explaining, i'm gonna keep watching a few of these sites over the next week to see how things sway a little

 

[Scotttri]

My Predictions


1. Basso
2. Ullrich
3. Evans

As for the rest, you could probably throw a blanket on about 15 riders. I think people under estimate evans itt ability he did win the commonwealth games time trial a few years back. Also he was the only person last year to match it with Basso and Armstrong on some of the big hill stages.

 

[mitosis]

ullrich, basso
or basso, ullrich
they will be close.
then daylight to the rest.

 

[cyclingheroes]

Thomas Dekker won't start at the TdF:
http://www.nos.nl/nosstudiosport/artikelen/2006/6/25/25061900thomasdekkernietnaartour.html

Edit: he will be replaced by Bram De Groot, according to the Rabobank website Thomas is out of form.

 

[charles.v]

1. MOREAU
2. Levi
3. ULLRICH

Ullrich is all talk

 

[mikkemus]

I`ll think I`ll have to reconsider...

DC`s chances of yet another victory rise...

 

[nitrous]

I`ll think I`ll have to reconsider...

DC`s chances of yet another victory rise...

If Evans comes out of this clean he will win the tour!

 

[steve]

If Evans comes out of this clean he will win the tour!

Agreed!

 

[gene d]

Now that alot of the top contenders are out there's a good chance that there will be an all-american levi-landis-hincapie podium.

Actually count hincapie out, I don't think he'll get that far.

 

[meehs]

In light of recent developments, I'd like to change my prediction that Ullrich and Basso will be numbers one and two on the podium. I'll move my number three pick Levi Leipheimer to the top spot. I'll then take Evans and Landis in the two and three spots since Vinokourov's entire team has been banned (is Vino himself riding?). I'm not even going to bother with four through ten because I don't know who's left!

 

[garnetstar]

Bob Roll predicted, before Ullrich and Basso were out, that Hincapie would win (huh?). OK, Bob's nuts, but George's chances have certainly *improved*. of course, so have everyone else's!


Don't know if Landis' team is strong enough? Especially since the two of them are out.


Levi seems like a flash in the pan to me, for no good reason whatsoever. So, don't take my opinion on him seriously.


I think that the wild card is Valverde: if he's on form, or has improved, he will come through.

 

[Eldrack]

My predicitions have to be re-evaluted post suspension of some big names.

Valverde will win. A discovery man will come second (pick one, any one) due to the fact they can attack to merry hell and back because they have so many contenders. Levi third.

 

[lwedge]

Don't know if Landis' team is strong enough? Especially since the two of them are out...

Phonak will have all of the riders on the original TDF roster. Botero and Gutierrez were not going to ride in TDF.

Levi seems like a flash in the pan to me, for no good reason whatsoever. So, don't take my opinion on him seriously..

Another full TDF team.

I think that the wild card is Valverde: if he's on form, or has improved, he will come through.

Valverde could do well but he will have to change his code name.

lw