Vino - TdF 2006

[bobke]

Oh, but it has been. That's pretty much been T-Mobile's strategy for the last three years. Vino, Kloden, and Ullrich all trying to be the leader, with Zabel contributing nothing to moving any of them up the GC.

Vino should have changed teams a long time ago. He was the right talent on the wrong team, needing only a DS willing to hold him in check, and a team willing to support him. Might have that now - should make for an interesting year.

Vino will never win the Tour, period.

 

[Ricardo29]

why not?

6.21 mins behind basso.
without analysing the route, i hear there's more TT's, perhaps 1-2 mins per TT to vino (over basso). so lets say 3mins pegged back. perhaps he stays cool, his team keeps him cool, theres another 5mins in craziness saved. perhaps he goes mad and wins an uphill finish, theres 3mins gained.

im not saying he'l take back the exact 11minutes as outlined above....but surely there's much time that he can gain on basso.
ullrich will be strong again, but the rest can not win it.



1 Lance Armstrong (USA) Discovery Channel 86.15.02 (41.654 km/h)
2 Ivan Basso (Ita) Team CSC 4.40
3 Jan Ullrich (Ger) T-Mobile Team 6.21
4 Francisco Mancebo (Spa) Illes Balears-Caisse d'Epargne 9.59
5 Alexandre Vinokourov (Kaz) T-Mobile Team 11.01
6 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Gerolsteiner 11.21
7 Michael Rasmussen (Den) Rabobank 11.33
8 Cadel Evans (Aus) Davitamon-Lotto 11.55
9 Floyd Landis (USA) Phonak Hearing Systems 12.44
10 Oscar Pereiro Sio (Spa) Phonak Hearing Systems 16.04
11 Christophe Moreau (Fra) Credit Agricole 16.26
12 Yaroslav Popovych (Ukr) Discovery Channel 19.02
13 Eddy Mazzoleni (Ita) Lampre-Caffita 21.06
14 George Hincapie (USA) Discovery Channel 23.40
15 Haimar Zubeldia (Spa) Euskaltel-Euskadi 23.43
16 Jörg Jaksche (Ger) Liberty Seguros-Würth 24.07
17 Bobby Julich (USA) Team CSC 24.08
18 Oscar Sevilla (Spa) T-Mobile Team 27.45
19 Andrei Kashechkin (Kaz) Credit Agricole 28.04
20 Giuseppe Guerini (Ita) T-Mobile Team 33.02

 

[barnstorm]

why not?

6.21 mins behind basso.
without analysing the route, i hear there's more TT's, perhaps 1-2 mins per TT to vino (over basso). so lets say 3mins pegged back. perhaps he stays cool, his team keeps him cool, theres another 5mins in craziness saved. perhaps he goes mad and wins an uphill finish, theres 3mins gained.

im not saying he'l take back the exact 11minutes as outlined above....but surely there's much time that he can gain on basso.
ullrich will be strong again, but the rest can not win it.



1 Lance Armstrong (USA) Discovery Channel 86.15.02 (41.654 km/h)
2 Ivan Basso (Ita) Team CSC 4.40
3 Jan Ullrich (Ger) T-Mobile Team 6.21
4 Francisco Mancebo (Spa) Illes Balears-Caisse d'Epargne 9.59
5 Alexandre Vinokourov (Kaz) T-Mobile Team 11.01
6 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Gerolsteiner 11.21
7 Michael Rasmussen (Den) Rabobank 11.33
8 Cadel Evans (Aus) Davitamon-Lotto 11.55
9 Floyd Landis (USA) Phonak Hearing Systems 12.44
10 Oscar Pereiro Sio (Spa) Phonak Hearing Systems 16.04
11 Christophe Moreau (Fra) Credit Agricole 16.26
12 Yaroslav Popovych (Ukr) Discovery Channel 19.02
13 Eddy Mazzoleni (Ita) Lampre-Caffita 21.06
14 George Hincapie (USA) Discovery Channel 23.40
15 Haimar Zubeldia (Spa) Euskaltel-Euskadi 23.43
16 Jörg Jaksche (Ger) Liberty Seguros-Würth 24.07
17 Bobby Julich (USA) Team CSC 24.08
18 Oscar Sevilla (Spa) T-Mobile Team 27.45
19 Andrei Kashechkin (Kaz) Credit Agricole 28.04
20 Giuseppe Guerini (Ita) T-Mobile Team 33.02

I understand you are just playing with the numbers here and speculating. Some of this might have some credence. I believe, enough to put Vino in a fight for third place. But, you overstate Vino's time gains over Basso in the TTs. Basso only lost a bit over 30 seconds in the TTs last year. That includes Basso going out way too fast in the second TT and admitting later that he rode a really dumb race. He probably was trying to make clear to Ullrich that he had no chance of pulling back enough time for second as that's all he was riding for. In that case a success. I do believe with the improvements Basso is making in TT, he won't lose much time, if any to Vino there. Nor can Vino drop Basso on a climb unless Basso is in the tank for some other reason like last year's Giro.

 

[ilpirata]

I understand you are just playing with the numbers here and speculating. Some of this might have some credence. I believe, enough to put Vino in a fight for third place. But, you overstate Vino's time gains over Basso in the TTs. Basso only lost a bit over 30 seconds in the TTs last year. That includes Basso going out way too fast in the second TT and admitting later that he rode a really dumb race. He probably was trying to make clear to Ullrich that he had no chance of pulling back enough time for second as that's all he was riding for. In that case a success. I do believe with the improvements Basso is making in TT, he won't lose much time, if any to Vino there. Nor can Vino drop Basso on a climb unless Basso is in the tank for some other reason like last year's Giro.

These are all good points. Let me throw in my two cents.
I believe Vino can win the tour with the proper preparation, team, tactics, and (ehem) intagibles. I thought he was heavier than he should be to minimize time losses for the gc in the mountains last year. However since he did not race as if the gc was his primary objective, and still he finished fifth, he has to be certainly a threat to win tour. And let's not forget his finish from a three years ago.

 

[wicklow200]

why not?

6.21 mins behind basso.
without analysing the route, i hear there's more TT's, perhaps 1-2 mins per TT to vino (over basso). so lets say 3mins pegged back. perhaps he stays cool, his team keeps him cool, theres another 5mins in craziness saved. perhaps he goes mad and wins an uphill finish, theres 3mins gained.

im not saying he'l take back the exact 11minutes as outlined above....but surely there's much time that he can gain on basso.
ullrich will be strong again, but the rest can not win it.

The point is that Vino was not a contender in LA's view. So he was given some slack. Given no slack he wouldnt have got any breakaways, and then how far would he have finished behind on GC - another 4 or 5 minutes?

Witness LAs reaction to Rasmussens's stage win (or was it wins?) last year. LA was rather surprised and, to parahrase, he said he wont be getting away again like that, thats for sure.

Its not that I dont think highly of Vino. But the facts dont add up. He was no danger, so it was allright to let him on up the road.

And in my opinion Vino's attitude during the 2005 tour might have actually prevented Jan from taking second place on GC. Vino was riding for himself and his next contract. A sort of advertsement - "look at me, I can take on the mighty Lance - who would like to offer me a contract next year?". And to give him his due he wanted to test the resolve of LA - if he succeeded in cracking him, then he's a hero; if he fails, then he's a hero for trying.

Just sayin'.

 

[oscar744]

Vino won't make top five this year. Too much energy wasted on to many pointless attacks. While it is great to watch it won't win the Tour de France.

Discovery had more than enough fire power to control the pack last year and if he was considered a threat to Lance he would never have been allowed the chance to slip away.

 

[whiteboytrash]

Discovery had more than enough fire power to control the pack last year and if he was considered a threat to Lance he would never have been allowed the chance to slip away.

Yawn......

I'm going to install a plug-in into my web browser which omits posts when the following sequence of words are posted:

"Discovery let x win" and "z was not a threat so Discovery let z win a stage"

Hint: Its 2006 not 1999.

 

[moviekindoflife]

The point is that Vino was not a contender in LA's view. So he was given some slack. Given no slack he wouldnt have got any breakaways, and then how far would he have finished behind on GC - another 4 or 5 minutes?

Witness LAs reaction to Rasmussens's stage win (or was it wins?) last year. LA was rather surprised and, to parahrase, he said he wont be getting away again like that, thats for sure.

Its not that I dont think highly of Vino. But the facts dont add up. He was no danger, so it was allright to let him on up the road.

And in my opinion Vino's attitude during the 2005 tour might have actually prevented Jan from taking second place on GC. Vino was riding for himself and his next contract. A sort of advertsement - "look at me, I can take on the mighty Lance - who would like to offer me a contract next year?". And to give him his due he wanted to test the resolve of LA - if he succeeded in cracking him, then he's a hero; if he fails, then he's a hero for trying.

Just sayin'.

by given slack you mean when he attacked salvoldelli or popovych were there trying their hardest to close the gap and bring lance up to him

 

[tcklyde]

These are all good points. Let me throw in my two cents.
I believe Vino can win the tour with the proper preparation, team, tactics, and (ehem) intagibles. I thought he was heavier than he should be to minimize time losses for the gc in the mountains last year. However since he did not race as if the gc was his primary objective, and still he finished fifth, he has to be certainly a threat to win tour. And let's not forget his finish from a three years ago.

Absolutely. Vino raced as a wild card in 2005 and was wonderful. Fully dedicated to GC, he could certainly podium and would be a very credible threat for victory.

Everyone talks about his stage victories and what he does in the mountains, but that's only half the story. Vino is a superb TTist. He took nearly 40 seconds out of Basso in the last TT in TdF 2005.

He is very much a contender in 2006.

 

[wicklow200]

by given slack you mean when he attacked salvoldelli or popovych were there trying their hardest to close the gap and bring lance up to him

Or maybe they were just keeping the gap to within a reasonable time. Thats another possible tactic against someone who they dont see as a big danger for overall, but whom they dont really want to see get too far out there, just in case.

 

[bobke]

Absolutely. Vino raced as a wild card in 2005 and was wonderful. Fully dedicated to GC, he could certainly podium and would be a very credible threat for victory.

Everyone talks about his stage victories and what he does in the mountains, but that's only half the story. Vino is a superb TTist. He took nearly 40 seconds out of Basso in the last TT in TdF 2005.

He is very much a contender in 2006.

Yes, its great what drugs can do for a second rate TTist like Vino.
Kinda reminds me of Lance and Sheryl.
FREE SHERYL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!