M
Mark Hickey
Guest
[email protected] (JP) wrote:
>[email protected] (Peter Van Buren) wrote in message news:<[email protected]>...
>> Mark Hickey <[email protected]> wrote in message news:<[email protected]>...
>> > >The recovery *is* stalled. What I *hope* is that Americans don't fall
>> > >for ******** story that one month of job creation represents any kind
>> > >of significant recovery.
>> >
>> > 800,000 jobs since August. But why don't you post some statistical
>> > indicators showing the economy is "stalled"? C'mon, I know you can do
>> > it.
>
>The recession ended in 2001. Up until August (assuming you're right)
>there were no jobs created. Since then, only 800k, an average of about
>100k/jobs per month. The same data that shows 300k jobs created last
>month also shows that there was now wage growth. I don't know about
>you, but when there is no wage growth for American workers, and when
>jobs are being created at a paltry average of 100k/month, I will call
>that a stalled economy. You, OTOH, may wish to call an economy stalled
>when GDP is not growing. You are welcome to that definition if you
>like, but with around 2 *million* jobs lost since the economy started
>"growing" again, I'll stick with my definition.
The job growth has been understandably slow during the Bush
administration...
1) the economy was in a death spiral when he took office
2) the huge corporate scandals (Enron et al) shook investor confidence
severely
3) the 9/11 attacks
Surely you wouldn't claim that had Al Gore been in office none of this
would have slowed down job growth? The way employment is measured is
convoluted and archaic (and lags reality by a considerable measure).
Check out the size of the actual US work force over the years, based
on the "household survey" numbers (that aren't inaccurately influenced
by the "business survey's" inability to account for new businesses):
http://data.bls.gov/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?request_action=wh&graph_name=LN_cpsbref1
Note the *growth* in jobs.
>For comparison, as I stated before, Clinton had 23 months over eight
>years with 300k+ jobs; Bush has had one (1). Job creation lags behind
>recovery, but not to the degree we have seen under Bush. So I would
>say that this "recovery" is stalled at the part where jobs are
>created, because 100k jobs/month does not constitute recovery. If over
>the next year, the economy begins to create *good* jobs at the rate of
>300k/month, then maybe we got something, but again, ONE MONTH OF JOBS
>DATA IS NOT A TREND OR A "RECOVERY"!
Like Mr. Kerry, you seem to want to confuse "jobs" with "economy".
The "recovery" is a fact, and I'd never suggest that a one month spike
(positive or negative) suggests a trend. The reason the jobs are
lagging behind the rest of the economy longer than normal is because
US industry has experienced unprecedented gains in productivity.
That's also good, because it means we've gotten more efficient, and
we'll be doing a LOT more with even more workers.
>And there is nothing about the
>economic conditions as I enumerated them previously that would cause
>me to put money on the economy continuing to grow over the next year
>enough to keep that rate up. But, if you're lucky (or unlucky, if you
>run a small business making relatively high-end low production
>titanium bicycle frames) the trend may last just long enough to get
>Bush re-elected before everything goes into the crapper again.
I'm very bullish on the economy right now - Wall Street is on fire
with all the great news (not hurting my portfolio a bit, either).
>Hickey may call it a recovery; I call it ****.
I call it "reality" - either you're wrong or every economic analyst on
earth is wrong. Heck, even Kerry isn't trying to say the economy
isn't roaring back any longer.
Mark Hickey
Habanero Cycles
http://www.habcycles.com
Home of the $695 ti frame
>[email protected] (Peter Van Buren) wrote in message news:<[email protected]>...
>> Mark Hickey <[email protected]> wrote in message news:<[email protected]>...
>> > >The recovery *is* stalled. What I *hope* is that Americans don't fall
>> > >for ******** story that one month of job creation represents any kind
>> > >of significant recovery.
>> >
>> > 800,000 jobs since August. But why don't you post some statistical
>> > indicators showing the economy is "stalled"? C'mon, I know you can do
>> > it.
>
>The recession ended in 2001. Up until August (assuming you're right)
>there were no jobs created. Since then, only 800k, an average of about
>100k/jobs per month. The same data that shows 300k jobs created last
>month also shows that there was now wage growth. I don't know about
>you, but when there is no wage growth for American workers, and when
>jobs are being created at a paltry average of 100k/month, I will call
>that a stalled economy. You, OTOH, may wish to call an economy stalled
>when GDP is not growing. You are welcome to that definition if you
>like, but with around 2 *million* jobs lost since the economy started
>"growing" again, I'll stick with my definition.
The job growth has been understandably slow during the Bush
administration...
1) the economy was in a death spiral when he took office
2) the huge corporate scandals (Enron et al) shook investor confidence
severely
3) the 9/11 attacks
Surely you wouldn't claim that had Al Gore been in office none of this
would have slowed down job growth? The way employment is measured is
convoluted and archaic (and lags reality by a considerable measure).
Check out the size of the actual US work force over the years, based
on the "household survey" numbers (that aren't inaccurately influenced
by the "business survey's" inability to account for new businesses):
http://data.bls.gov/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?request_action=wh&graph_name=LN_cpsbref1
Note the *growth* in jobs.
>For comparison, as I stated before, Clinton had 23 months over eight
>years with 300k+ jobs; Bush has had one (1). Job creation lags behind
>recovery, but not to the degree we have seen under Bush. So I would
>say that this "recovery" is stalled at the part where jobs are
>created, because 100k jobs/month does not constitute recovery. If over
>the next year, the economy begins to create *good* jobs at the rate of
>300k/month, then maybe we got something, but again, ONE MONTH OF JOBS
>DATA IS NOT A TREND OR A "RECOVERY"!
Like Mr. Kerry, you seem to want to confuse "jobs" with "economy".
The "recovery" is a fact, and I'd never suggest that a one month spike
(positive or negative) suggests a trend. The reason the jobs are
lagging behind the rest of the economy longer than normal is because
US industry has experienced unprecedented gains in productivity.
That's also good, because it means we've gotten more efficient, and
we'll be doing a LOT more with even more workers.
>And there is nothing about the
>economic conditions as I enumerated them previously that would cause
>me to put money on the economy continuing to grow over the next year
>enough to keep that rate up. But, if you're lucky (or unlucky, if you
>run a small business making relatively high-end low production
>titanium bicycle frames) the trend may last just long enough to get
>Bush re-elected before everything goes into the crapper again.
I'm very bullish on the economy right now - Wall Street is on fire
with all the great news (not hurting my portfolio a bit, either).
>Hickey may call it a recovery; I call it ****.
I call it "reality" - either you're wrong or every economic analyst on
earth is wrong. Heck, even Kerry isn't trying to say the economy
isn't roaring back any longer.
Mark Hickey
Habanero Cycles
http://www.habcycles.com
Home of the $695 ti frame