Putin May Send Military Aircraft Back To Cuba

Discussion in 'Your Bloody Soap Box' started by Carrera, Aug 20, 2008.

  1. Carrera

    Carrera New Member

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    Yes, the Cold War is very definitely back on but, this time round, not an ideological war, rather a strategic one. Some months ago Russia threatened to retaliate if the U.S. went ahead and supported the independence of Kosovo from Serbia.
    In fact, the U.S. drive to support Kosovo's independence from Serbia didn't only alarm Russia but it also alarmed Spain (since Basque nationalists have also sought independence from Madrid).
    However, Russia made it clear if Kosovo was supported by the E.U. and America in breaking from Serbia, Russia would support independence of certain former Soviet geographical zones as well, i.e. those that are pro-Russian.
    Lets' remember both Serbs and Russians are Orthodox Christian so have strong cultural ties.
    So, in fact, the recent war in Georgia came about after Georgia finally lost patience with Ossetia which was supported in a drive to autonomy by Russia.
    Yes, Russia's motive wasn't purely humanitarian when it sent in the army but, yes, none of this would have happened if the U.S. hadn't interfered in Serbian affairs.
    It's a tit-for-tat response.
    Not only that but Condi Rice has approved a joint defence anti missile program to be based in Poland which has upset Russia. Apart from the proposed shield, the U.S. has supplied Poland with missiles, judged by Putin to be a provocation aimed at the Russians.
    The Russian response could actually send shock waves of a new Cold War through Europe as there are a number of responses now on the cards. Firstly, Moscow may target Poland with strategic nukes and also set up a joint defence program with Belarus, directed at Poland.
    More chillingly, Putin may send bomber aircraft to Cuba, in order to send a message to Bush.
    However the case may be, whatever happens in the near future is the fault of Bush and his foreign policy and apparent desire to destabilise Putin.
     
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  2. wolfix

    wolfix New Member

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    Blame America again. I am starting to think Europe has a inferiority complex. To understand as to why Americans really do not care what opinions come out of Europe you need to know our history. Most of our relatives left Europe because they wanted a better life. And since we have not seen a movement to go back to Europe, they must have found it.

    The people who came to America chose to come here. Unlike Australia where tscumbags were sent because of criminal behavior. Isn't it time that the Brits apologize to the indigenous people of Australia for screwing up the island we now call Australia? If it wasn't for Churchill giving the British empire away after getting England involved in WW2 with his bumblings, then we would have a Russia that might behave.

    Good to see you posting again Carrera............. Nothing like a good Russian scandal to bring you out of hibernation.
     
  3. limerickman

    limerickman Moderator

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    I'm not sure that Serbia/Russia example is quite right.
    Yes, the EU/USA did support the independence of Kosovo and yes Serbia and Russia are both orthodox.
    That's about as far as it goes.

    My reading of it is that the Georgian President misread the signs.
    He assumed that by walking in to in South Ossetia that he would have the unconditional support of the EU/America.
    Whether he was encouraged to take that view - is the point.

    Yes we can argue about the validity of the political entity called South Ossetia : is it Georgian or is it Russian?
    Geographically it is Georgian territory but politically it has always aligned itselft to the former USSR and Russia.

    There are wider consequences to all of this : Ukraine is going through a similar
    mindset.
    Western Ukraine sees itself as being part of Europe : East Ukraine doesn't.
    If Georgia was a dry run, then the Russians have set out their stall.
    From a Russian viewpoint, it is understandable that it would be nervous about
    their former Republics rush to join the EU etc.
    Personally I would have a issue with the admittance of the former soviet republics and the balkan republics to the EU.
    These entities were always different - they never bought in to EU-wide concepts like Rennaissance, the Reformation, The Age of Enlightment, Industrial Revolution, etc
    Culturally/historically they were always different.

    Incidentally Carerra : Europe sources most f it's energy requirements from Russia.
    I don't think that the EU wish to, or intend to, try to antagonise Russia.
    Besides, the amount of non-oil trade between EU and Russia has grown expotentially since 1989.
    No one, from the EU and/or Russia wants to see a return to the Cold War.
     
  4. wolfix

    wolfix New Member

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    A very complex problem happening. And it seems to me that Putin is difficult to read. I agree that the Georgians may have jumped into something that they didn't want to.

    The world better watch what is happening there though. Europe has a lot at stake. What seems to be the reaction of the European NATO countries right now?
     
  5. limerickman

    limerickman Moderator

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    I don't know the ins and outs of the Georgian situation - except what I've read through various media.

    Looking at it from a Russian (Putin?) viewpoint : Ukraine, Georgia, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia were all considered Russian (Soviet).
    These countries are all independent nations now.

    Geographically they're very close to Russia.
    Politically, they probably want to a million miles from Russia.
    And while I can fully undertsand their wish to be as far away from Russia as possible (given the wars fought throughout the centuries in these territories),
    they cannot get away from the geographical conundrum.

    I'm not sure why the Georgians decided to enter Sout Ossetia.
    Thats the puzzle.
    From what I have read, even the American political establishment cannot work out why the Georgians did this.
     
  6. wolfix

    wolfix New Member

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    You got that right. Putin is not a stupid man. Being ex-KGB gives him a more complex reputation. I am not sure anyone can read him over here. There is the talk he wants the old Soviet system back............ Then we have talk of the NATO aggression on his boundaries, starting w/Georgia. What is correct?

    The question is "just how far will NATO go if this turns out to be Russian aggression at it's worst?"

    The thing that is confusing many over here is that Russia is slow on acting it's agreement to pull out . The Bush administration seems to be taking the Russians at their word to pull out. And now it is slow, but happening.
     
  7. limerickman

    limerickman Moderator

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    The commentary over here is similar : no one can quite figure Putin out.
    Except to say that he is the real power in Russia, not Medvedev.

    As regards NATO - if Georgia had NATO membership then NATO would have to intervene against Russia.
    But Georgia isn't a NATO member.

    Its difficult to read the choreography : initially there were reports of hundreds/thousands of deaths following the Russian invasion of Georgia.
    Those numbers have been found to be very exxaggerated.
    The Russians said that they invaded Georgia to protect the citizens of Suth Ossetia who, as Carerra said, wanted autonomy in Georgia.
    Do they want autonomy? Or was this an excuse to invade?
    Again this is unclear.

    Then we had the spate about the defense system being placed in Poland.
    I can understand the Russian concern : two former areas (Poland/Georgia)
    which it controlled clearly aligning themselves with "the West"
    Imagine if you will Canada allowing Russia to locate a missile defense system in Manitoba.
    Imagine the consternation south of the border?????????
     
  8. Crankyfeet

    Crankyfeet New Member

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    Britain sent convicts to the US for about 70 years before the War of Independence. After American Independence... they switched to Australia. Most people in Australia are descended from normal immigrants/settlers... as is the case in the US. It is now considered desirable in Australia to have a convict in one's family tree... though for much of Australia's history... this was not the case. Major influxes of non-convict immigrants arrived in Australia during the Irish potato famine and the late 19th century gold rush.

    At the time convicts were being sent to the US and then Australia... most were petty criminals or supporters of Irish independence. There were about 220 crimes that were punishable by the death penalty in Britain at that time... most were crimes on property. Australia had a total of 162,000 convicts transported from Britain... the US had about 60,000.

    So the US had a penal colony past as well Wolfie... [​IMG]

    Post edit - btw... most of the above I got from a 10 minute crash course of internet googling... [​IMG]
     
  9. Carrera

    Carrera New Member

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    Well, I'm glad to see all you folks are O.K. too, despite the political differences we all have on occasion.
    Yes, I've been absent for a while. Recently I had a family member die in a tragic light aircraft accident which was reported on BBC News last year. Such things often happen and catch us unawares, maybe even cause us to ask deeper questions or re-address our values.
    As a result of the accident I took my cousin's German Shepherd dog under my wing and he's really a terrific companion and very athletic.
    Well, now back to the topic at hand....


     
  10. Carrera

    Carrera New Member

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    "The Russians said that they invaded Georgia to protect the citizens of Suth Ossetia who, as Carerra said, wanted autonomy in Georgia.
    Do they want autonomy? Or was this an excuse to invade?
    Again this is unclear."

    I'm almost sure that after Kosovo's independence, Russia actively worked behind the scenes to encourage breakaway pro-Russian regions in Georgia, such as Ossetia. In fact, I recall some Russian spokesman refer to the independence of Kosovo and then state at the time Russia would respond to Kosovo by a specific game-plan, involving recognition of pro-Russian regions.
    As for background, several events upset Russia: First of all, Clinton's decision to bomb Serbia. Then the Iraq War. After that, the recognition of Kosovo as independent from Serbia. And, above all, the expansion of NATO to Russian borders, even more so where the Ukraine is concerned.
    The reality is, the current situation of expansion towards Russia will inevitably provoke a reaction. Even if a missile shield in Poland and a radar system in Prague won't damage Russia too much, at this point, as the saying goes, "You give an inch and they take a mile!"
    The way the Russians see it, once a few defensive rockets are in Poland and Bush has influence in Georgia, more ballistic missiles can creep into Poland and the Czech Republic. In fact, patriots have already been supplied. Add to that, more interference in the Ukraine's politics where half of the country wishes to join NATO and where the richer mining area wishes to remain tied to Moscow.
    So, I switched on the BBC News this evening and now I hear Russia mumbling about arming Syria with "defensive weapons". Putin also once hinted at sending bombers back to Cuba or to a welcoming South American State. Would Raul Castro go along with that? Who knows.
    My own view, when all is said and done, is this: Russia seemed to have bent over backwards to co-exist peacefully with the Europe and the U.S. It was Gorbachev who helped unify Germany and tear down the Berlin Wall, so the Russians must be furious now to see Germany sympathise with Georgia, given Georgia used huge excessive force against Ossetians. Russia likewise provided assistance to NATO after 9/11 and closed down overseas military bases.
    What the West really disliked was the nationalisation of Russian oil and Putin's clever use of oil and gas resources to enrich his economy. What suited best was a drunken old man at the helm and a far more open Russian market.
    This is a crucial point in history for Russia. At the moment it looks as if China is going to be the number one global power but Putin is determined to re-establish Russia to some of its former USSR glory.



     
  11. Carrera

    Carrera New Member

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    Russian people have always prospered by autocracy but there have been times where democracy nearly took root in Russia. Most Russians now fully understand they don't live in a liberal democracy but most don't worry about it as they feel they need a strong leader to stand up to E.U. expansion and NATO.
    The way I see it now, Russia is like a liberal autocracy with a huge State controlled oil economy. It's heavily centralised.
    I don't know either why Russia is saying it will pull out but then doesn't pull out. The idea is to leave just enough troops on the ground to keep a firm foot of influence within Georgia. Possibly Russia will go ahead and support the independence of Ossetia. That would infuriate Bush and act as a permanent wedge.


     
  12. wolfix

    wolfix New Member

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    I think most of those American criminals live on my block.
     
  13. EoinC

    EoinC New Member

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    ... and now New Zealand has taken on the role of being Australia's primary source of imported convicts. We even set up a Trans-Tasman trade treaty to ensure that convicts would remain plentiful in the Big Country. By 2010, no Australian family will be denied the right to possessing their own convict.

    In Perth, we are sometimes blessed with convicts in our family houses, not just our family trees... How good is that?!
     
  14. garage sale GT

    garage sale GT New Member

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    The Grand Duchy of Lithuania, then the Polish-Lithuanian Union, later the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, included much of Belorussia and Ukraine. Scholars learning abroad did participate in the Renaissance and brought back its ideas and architecture to their home lands.

    There was a reformation. There are Calvinists and Lutherans there essentially from the time of Calvin and Luther, and a Polish church similar to the Unitarian/Universalist church. I think you mean they didn't have a Thirty Years' War. The people enjoyed a much higher degree of religious freedom than the Western Europeans whom you hold to be culturally enlightened, although it tended to vary. Russian Orthodox, Pagan (Lithuania did not permanently become Christian until 1387 A.D.), Jewish, and Tartar religions coexisted, and when the Protestants came onto the scene, one was not obliged to convert to the religion of whoever won the war. Hence, many remained Catholic or Orthodox.

    They had elected rather than hereditary kings, like Steven Batory of Transylvania. In 1791, they tried to turn the country into a constitutional republic. The Prussians and Russians viewed this as a threat and Russia took over the country in 1795 with Prussian help.
     
  15. bkaapcke

    bkaapcke New Member

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    We have George Bush to thank for this. bk
     
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