Originally posted by Ted B
These two events are hardly equivocal...
Ullrich took a fall in the final TT because he was willing to take chances to pursue the win. Likewise, the blocking of riders is a competitive tactic voluntarily initiated by riders themselves. On the other hand, Lance was taken down by unfortunate interference from a non-participant. By not attacking, Ullrich and the other riders merely chose to neutralize the influence of outside interference on the outcome of the race.
If other riders choose to take measures such as not to let similar incidents (e.g. non-participant interference) influence the outcome of the entire event, I'm all for it.
You make a good point here about neutralizing the effect of outside interference. However, that is something which is subject also to interpretation, and this is all done on the fly. It's hard to make this kind of snap judgment in a race. Look at what we are doing now, many months later--debating this to figure out what really happened.
I watched this many, many times on OLN when it happened. They kept playing it over and over. I saw Lance riding too close to the spectators and taking the fall. He admits that it was his fault for riding too close. Perhaps the fatigue was setting in and he was losing just a little bit of focus on this hazard. It's hard to say. I'd say that it hadn't happened recently enough in his past to be viewed as much of a concern. It's like if you are driving down a highway, and you don't hit any potholes for a long time, and then you slam into one at high speed. Quickly, you adjust your driving style. Similarly, when this happened to Lance, he was immediately in readjustment mode for the remainder of the Tour de France with respect to spectator interference, and I doubt that with that incident having been behind him say in the race before the Tour de France that he would have gone too close there.
But this is tough to call, and the riders are reacting to something they mostly didn't even see themselves. But if you consider that Lance's fall was mostly his own fault, and I think it was for riding too close, then this is not to be viewed as outside interference. It is an unforced error. And then you can directly compare it with the situation of team blocking, wondering why they will take advantage of a deliberately trapped rider instead of one who falls off of his bike mostly because of his own fault.
The fall after that, where Lance is going into maximum cranking mode to get back in the race and attack from behind, I think that he was simply generating much more torque than usual, and perhaps because of his urgency, was not pedalling quite as beautifully as usual. I think he put too much lateral stress on the clipless pedals and forced the binding loose. So he was clearly stumbling there, one thing after another. But then he came back tremendously and showed his true form.
I don't think Ullrich would have won even if it were obvious that he were attacking when Lance went down. I can't really tell if he was waiting or not. I don't think it would have eliminated Lance if Jan had more energy to burn at this point. It looked as if Jan did not wait, but I was wondering at the time whether Jan had much energy to attack at this point too. It doesn't seem that Jan did judging by the outcome when Lance overtook him to put a more comfortable gap between them for the final time trial.
Also, when you do what if's, you have to consider that the downed rider might react differently if he knows someone has attacked him when he goes down. I bet Lance would have come back even stronger had that been the case. It's like when he won that Tour de France stage after his teammate, the olympic champion Fabio Casatelli, died in the 1995 Tour de France. He felt like he was on a mission, and he "felt no pain" as he accelerated away from all of the competition, burying them on a mountain climb. He experienced an out of body experience in this episode, my theory being that his brain chemicals (endorphins) were in overdrive. He felt like he was riding for a greater purpose--to do honor to his downed comrade. As you may know, endorphins are 1000 times as powerful as morphine, ounce per ounce. You don't want to get Lance into this mode. He wasn't there on this 2003 race, after the crashes, but he might have been if all would have attacked while he was down. And then, look out... It may have ended with a wider, not narrower gap.