Draft letter to Injury prevention



J

Just Zis Guy

Guest
Bicycle Helmets: Time for a sense of perspective
================================================

To focus on injury mitigation in cyclists to the exclusion
of addressing the causes of crashes, as is the trend in
public debate at present, risks fundamental errors - not
least the apparent post hoc fallacy of assuming that cycling
head injuries are the result of failure to wear helmets,
rather than of the types of crashes cyclists experience.

I recently analysed Department of Health data on child
hospital admissions for England for the period 1995/96 to
2002/03.  From this analysis it was apparent that:

- the proportion of head injuries in child cyclists on the
road is hardly different from that of child pedestrians;
- the risk of head injury in offroad cycling is an order of
magnitude lower than in road cycling;
- cycling is far from being the leading cause of head injury
admission, being behind trips and falls and even assault.

It is interesting to me, as both a cyclist and a parent, to
explore the reasons that cycling is seen as a uniquely
dangerous activity, when a dispassionate look at these and
many other statistics indicates very clearly that it is not.
 Some of us will recently have witnessed "lightbulb moments"
in friends and colleagues who we have accompanied as "bike
buddies" in Bike Week.  The comment "well, that was less
scary than I thought" will have been uttered many times this
past week!

I have a view that there are a number of factors at
work here:

- head injuries raise a spectre of intellectual disablement
which cannot be "fixed" by modern medicine, even though
this is very rare - the fact that such injuries are now
thought to be mainly the result of rotational forces which
helmets do not mitigate (and may even aggravate) adds a
touch of irony;

- even trivial head injuries can bleed spectacularly, which
combines with the fear factor above to ensure the maximum
likelihood of attendance at A&E or a minor injuries unit
"just in case" - even though in most cases treatment is
limited to dressing or, at worst, stitches - so that
nurses, for example, "see a lot of cycling head injuries";

- there exists a substantial industry whose expensive
product will not sell unless a culture of fear is
maintained, and the protective effect

modern helmet if they were told bluntly that they are tested
only for the equivalent of a fall from a stationary riding
position, yet this is the literal truth (and explains the
wide disparity between claims made by manufacturers, whose
claims are controlled by advertising regulations, and by
helmet advocacy groups, who still quote the discredited 1989
Thompson, Rivara and Thompson study);

- the culture of fear extends in particular to the danger of
motor traffic, with some justification as the estimated
10% of child cycling which is on-road results in half of
all cyclist admissions;

- there is a widespread and undoubtedly false belief that,
firstly, there is nothing that can be done about the
source of this danger
(i.e. drivers cannot be made to drive more carefully), and
secondly, that no amount of riding skill can reduce
the danger;

- fundamentally, most of those campaigning for helmets are
not cyclists and have little understanding of the vast
range of different activities and scales of risk which
that term encompasses - it is as if all outdoor activity
from afternoon walks in the park to free-climbing were
considered under a single umbrella.

One thing struck me very forcefully when analysing the
admissions data.  Motor vehicles account for around 10% of
child hospital admissions but half of all injury fatalities
(Office of National Statistics).  This greatly increased
danger is shared by cyclists, (far more numerous)
pedestrians and motor vehicle occupants.  The danger is
inherent in the source, not the victims' activities.

A proper study of head injury in cyclists cannot evade these
facts.  It is well known that cyclists in particular are
generally not to blame in crashes involving motor traffic;
what is less well known is that riding techniques already
exist which dramatically reduce the chances of some of the
more common sorts of crash.  It is to be hoped that public
debate on cyclist safety will soon lose its cyclopean focus
on injury mitigation devices which, it has to be said, are
not associated anywhere in the world with improvements in
safety, and shift onto prevention, both by improved driver
behaviour and better riding skills.

Guy
--
May contain traces of irony. Contents liable to settle after posting.
http://www.chapmancentral.co.uk

88% of helmet statistics are made up, 65% of them at Washington University
 
Just zis Guy, you know? wrote:

> Bicycle Helmets: Time for a sense of perspective
> ================================================

Looks fine to me, but it is clear from a quick browse that
IP is well established in the junk science category, full of
space-fillers from wannabe "researchers" strongly in need of
a clue-by-four and with absolutely no editorial quality
control whatsoever.

The recent letters page is good for a laugh.

http://ip.bmjjournals.com/cgi/eletters?lookup=by_date&days=-
60

James
--
If I have seen further than others, it is by treading on the
toes of giants. http://www.ne.jp/asahi/julesandjames/home/
 
On Fri, 18 Jun 2004 23:57:33 +0100, "Just zis Guy, you
know?" <[email protected]> wrote (more or
less): ...
>One thing struck me very forcefully when analysing the
>admissions data.  Motor vehicles account for around 10% of
>child hospital admissions but half of all injury fatalities
>(Office of National Statistics).  This greatly increased
>danger is shared by cyclists, (far more numerous)
>pedestrians and motor vehicle occupants.  The danger is
>inherent in the source, not the victims' activities.
>
>A proper study of head injury in cyclists cannot evade
>these facts.  It is well known that cyclists in particular
>are generally not to blame in crashes involving motor
>traffic; what is less well known is that riding techniques
>already exist which dramatically reduce the chances of some
>of the more common sorts of crash.  It is to be hoped that
>public debate on cyclist safety will soon lose its
>cyclopean focus on injury mitigation devices which, it has
>to be said, are not associated anywhere in the world with
>improvements in safety, and shift onto prevention, both by
>improved driver behaviour and better riding skills.
...

Perhaps a mention of increase in danger per person as the
number of cycling persons decreases?

Seeing as you're covering just about every point relative to
helmets and cyclist safety already.... :)

--
Cheers, Euan Gawnsoft: http://www.gawnsoft.co.sr
Symbian/Epoc wiki: http://html.dnsalias.net:1122 Smalltalk
links (harvested from comp.lang.smalltalk)
http://html.dnsalias.net/gawnsoft/smalltalk
 
Just zis Guy, you know? wrote:
> Bicycle Helmets: Time for a sense of perspective
> ================================================
>

Three suggestions. First you switch between impersonal and
personal. It is tradition to write in the impersonal in
journals. Second you miss out the biggest safety factor
being numbers cycling and third it would probably help if
you were to stick in some references to some of the papers
demonstrating your points e.g Crook and Shakey as a
reference in para 1.

Tony
 
On 19/6/04 9:29 am, in article [email protected], "Tony Raven"
<[email protected]> wrote:

> Just zis Guy, you know? wrote:
>> Bicycle Helmets: Time for a sense of perspective
>> ================================================
>>
>
> Three suggestions. First you switch between impersonal and
> personal. It is tradition to write in the impersonal in
> journals. Second you miss out the biggest safety factor
> being numbers cycling and third it would probably help if
> you were to stick in some references to some of the papers
> demonstrating your points e.g Crook and Shakey as a
> reference in para 1.

I'll add to that by suggesting that you dont cite TRT as
'discredited' but instead say something like 'blatently use
the figures from TRT [ref] even though these figures are
dramatically higher than any other study, of dubious merit
[ref dorre's refutation] and have been revised downwards by
the authors [ref to correction].'

says the same thing just a little more professionally.

..d
 
Updated draft at <url:http://www.chapmancentral.co.uk/web/p-
ublic.nsf/Documents/ip> Guy
--
May contain traces of irony. Contents liable to settle after posting.
http://www.chapmancentral.co.uk

88% of helmet statistics are made up, 65% of them at Washington University
 
On Sat, 19 Jun 2004 11:34:09 +0100, "Just zis Guy, you know?"
<[email protected]> wrote (more or less):

>Updated draft at <url:http://www.chapmancentral.co.uk/web/-
>public.nsf/Documents/ip> Guy

Grammar police point. The closing sentence should read
'drive more slowly' rather than 'drive slower'.

'slower' is an adjective*, (e.g. 'a slower car') and you
want an adverb.

[* or a comparative, but that's beside the point at hand]

--
Cheers, Euan Gawnsoft: http://www.gawnsoft.co.sr
Symbian/Epoc wiki: http://html.dnsalias.net:1122 Smalltalk
links (harvested from comp.lang.smalltalk)
http://html.dnsalias.net/gawnsoft/smalltalk
 
"Gawnsoft" <[email protected]> wrote in
message news:[email protected]...
> On Sat, 19 Jun 2004 11:34:09 +0100, "Just zis Guy, you
> know?" <[email protected]> wrote (more or less):
>
> >Updated draft at <url:http://www.chapmancentral.co.uk/we-
> >b/public.nsf/Documents/ip> Guy
>
> Grammar police point. The closing sentence should read
> 'drive more slowly' rather than 'drive slower'.
>
> 'slower' is an adjective*, (e.g. 'a slower car') and you
> want an adverb.
>
> [* or a comparative, but that's beside the point at hand]

Are you certain about that?

if we ignore the typo - [at]

quote/

If the readers of Injury Prevention wish to ensure child
safety, the most effective course of action is clear. If
they can't switch from driving to a low-impact mode such as
cycling, they should [at] drive slower and more carefully.

/unquote

As stated, the last sentence quite clearly implies they
should drive slower - than they presently do. It sets the
desired speed in a context.

Asking drivers to simply driver slower - without any implied
comparison is clearly meaningless and nobody would intend
such a thing.

As is also asking them to simply drive "more slowly".
What's that supposed to mean ? Asking drivers to drive
"more slowly" implies that they're driving "slowly" to some
extent already. A car that is say traveling at 60 miles per
hour perhaps ?

If you insist on asking them to drive "more slowly", then
similarly you will need to say "drive more slowly than you
currently do."

Which in fact might have quite the opposite effect to that
intended. As it would plant the idea in the motorist's head
that he was indeed already driving slowly.

I think.

Curious

...

> --
> Cheers, Euan Gawnsoft: http://www.gawnsoft.co.sr
> Symbian/Epoc wiki: http://html.dnsalias.net:1122 Smalltalk
> links (harvested from comp.lang.smalltalk)
http://html.dnsalias.net/gawnsoft/smalltalk
 
Dr Curious <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...

> > Grammar police point. The closing sentence should read
> > 'drive more slowly' rather than 'drive slower'.
> >
> > 'slower' is an adjective*, (e.g. 'a slower car') and you
> > want an adverb.
> >
> > [* or a comparative, but that's beside the point
> > at hand]
>
>
>
> Are you certain about that?
>
> if we ignore the typo - [at]
>
> quote/
>
> If the readers of Injury Prevention wish to ensure child
> safety, the most effective course of action is clear. If
> they can't switch from driving to a low-impact mode such
> as cycling, they should [at] drive slower and more
> carefully.
>
> /unquote
>
> As stated, the last sentence quite clearly implies they
> should drive slower - than they presently do. It sets the
> desired speed in a context.
>
> Asking drivers to simply driver slower - without any
> implied comparison is clearly meaningless and nobody would
> intend such a thing.
>
> As is also asking them to simply drive "more slowly".
> What's that supposed to mean ? Asking drivers to drive
> "more slowly" implies that they're driving "slowly" to
> some extent already. A car that is say traveling at 60
> miles per hour perhaps ?
>
> If you insist on asking them to drive "more slowly", then
> similarly you will need to say "drive more slowly than you
> currently do."
>
> Which in fact might have quite the opposite effect to that
> intended. As it would plant the idea in the motorist's
> head that he was indeed already driving slowly.
>

The grammar is indeed defective. "Drive slower" should
not be used.

While a direct replacement with a grammatically correct
phrase may obscure the author's meaning, it is no excuse for
using incorrect grammar. The phrase should be entirely re-
written; "reduce their speed" would serve.
 
Dr Curious wrote:
>
> Are you certain about that?
>

He's correct. Its "drive more slowly" Which of the
following makes sense to you - "drive slow; drive slower;
drive slowest" or "drive slowly; driver more slowly". The
first sequence is incorrect as it is using adjectives to
modify a verb whereas the second is correctly using adverbs
to modify the verb.

Tony
 
"Tony Raven" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> Dr Curious wrote:
> >
> > Are you certain about that?
> >
>
> He's correct. Its "drive more slowly"

So that -

a) a car which is being driven at 90 mph is being "driven
more slowly" than a car which is being driven at 100mph.

Is that correct?

However -

b) Such a car which is being driven "more slowly" must at
the very least, be being driven "slowly".

So that -

c) A car which is being driven at 90 mph can in certain
circumstances be described as being "driven slowly".

Agree?

Curious



> Tony
 
Dr Curious wrote:
> "Tony Raven" <[email protected]> wrote in message news:2jj1cpF120n9mU1@uni-
> berlin.de...
>> Dr Curious wrote:
>>>
>>> Are you certain about that?
>>>
>>
>> He's correct. Its "drive more slowly"
>
>
> Right. So it's "drive more slowly" than what exactly?
>

More slowly than you are or have been driving of course. It
is not normally necessary to spell out that which can be
reasonably inferred.

Tony
 
Dr Curious wrote:
> "Tony Raven" <[email protected]> wrote in message news:2jj1cpF120n9mU1@uni-
> berlin.de...
>> Dr Curious wrote:
>>>
>>> Are you certain about that?
>>>
>>
>> He's correct. Its "drive more slowly"
>
>
> So that -
>
> a) a car which is being driven at 90 mph is being "driven
> more slowly" than a car which is being driven at
> 100mph.
>
> Is that correct?
>
> However -
>
> b) Such a car which is being driven "more slowly" must at
> the very least, be being driven "slowly".
>
> So that -
>
> c) A car which is being driven at 90 mph can in certain
> circumstances be described as being "driven slowly".
>
> Agree?
>
>

The "All cats have three tails" logic*. But certainly if you
are in an F1 or Indy Cart race driving at 90mph can be
described as driving slowly. Your point is?

Tony

* Every cat has one more tail than no cat No cat has two
tails Ergo all cats have three tails
 
"jtaylor" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
>
> Dr Curious <[email protected]> wrote in message news:2jit58F12b0h1U1@uni-
> berlin.de...
>
> > > Grammar police point. The closing sentence should read
> > > 'drive more slowly' rather than 'drive slower'.
> > >
> > > 'slower' is an adjective*, (e.g. 'a slower car') and
> > > you want an adverb.
> > >
> > > [* or a comparative, but that's beside the point at
> > > hand]
> >
> >
> >
> > Are you certain about that?
> >
> > if we ignore the typo - [at]
> >
> > quote/
> >
> > If the readers of Injury Prevention wish to ensure child
> > safety, the most effective course of action is clear. If
> > they can't switch from driving to a low-impact mode such
> > as cycling, they should [at] drive slower and more
> > carefully.
> >
> > /unquote
> >
> > As stated, the last sentence quite clearly implies they
> > should drive slower - than they presently do. It sets
> > the desired speed in a
context.
> >
> > Asking drivers to simply driver slower - without any
> > implied comparison is clearly meaningless and nobody
> > would intend such a thing.
> >
> > As is also asking them to simply drive "more slowly".
> > What's that
supposed
> > to mean ? Asking drivers to drive "more slowly" implies
> > that they're driving "slowly" to some extent already. A
> > car that is say traveling at 60 miles per hour perhaps ?
> >
> > If you insist on asking them to drive "more slowly",
> > then similarly you will need to say "drive more slowly
> > than you currently do."
> >
> > Which in fact might have quite the opposite effect to
> > that intended. As
it
> > would plant the idea in the motorist's head that he was
> > indeed already driving slowly.
> >
>
> The grammar is indeed defective. "Drive slower" should not
> be used.

...

Fair enough. "Slower" here, is presumably a substitute for
something on the lines of "at a speed which is slower than
you normally do".

As a matter of interest is "drive at a slower speed"
correct?

Presumably "drive at (in the direction of) the gate "
certainly is.

>
> While a direct replacement with a grammatically correct
> phrase may
obscure
> the author's meaning, it is no excuse for using incorrect
> grammar. The phrase should be entirely re-written; "reduce
> their speed" would serve.
>

Presumably the "more carefully" should really cover the
speed aspect in any case, but your suggestion of "reduce
their speed" seems the most obvious solution. Though there
may still be a bit of mileage to be got out of "more
slowly" perhaps.

Curious
 
"Tony Raven" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> Dr Curious wrote:
> > "Tony Raven" <[email protected]> wrote in message
> > news:[email protected]...
> >> Dr Curious wrote:
> >>>
> >>> Are you certain about that?
> >>>
> >>
> >> He's correct. Its "drive more slowly"
> >
> >
> > So that -
> >
> > a) a car which is being driven at 90 mph is being
> > "driven more slowly" than a car which is being driven
> > at 100mph.
> >
> > Is that correct?
> >
> > However -
> >
> > b) Such a car which is being driven "more slowly" must
> > at the very least, be being driven "slowly".
> >
> > So that -
> >
> > c) A car which is being driven at 90 mph can in certain
> > circumstances be described as being "driven slowly".
> >
> > Agree?
> >
> >
>
> The "All cats have three tails" logic*.

...

How so?

...

> But certainly if you are in an F1 or Indy Cart race
> driving at 90mph can be described as driving slowly. Your
> point is?

...

When using the admittedly grammatically incorrect
"slower" it implies "slower than the speed" at which the
car was previously being driven. Which is what was
intended, at least.

Whereas using "slowly" or "more slowly", as in the above
example, it can imply simply driving slower than the
speed the car is capable of. Which isn't necessarily what
was intended.

Curious

>
> Tony
>
> * Every cat has one more tail than no cat No cat has two
> tails Ergo all cats have three tails
 
"Just zis Guy, you know?" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> Updated draft at <url:http://www.chapmancentral.co.uk/web-
> /public.nsf/Documents/ip> Guy

Suggest
1."To focus on injury mitigation to cyclists ..."

instead of

"To focus on injury mitigation in cyclists ..."

2

Omit the words 'post hoc' (sounds too fancy, and how many
will know what they mean?)

3

Change (i.e. drivers cannot be made to drive more
carefully), to (i.e. drivers and cyclists cannot be made to
drive/cycle more carefully),

[I drive to work on a road that is used by boys cycling to a
local school. I am surprised there isnt at least one
fatality a week going by their standard of cycling, which
was obviously taught at Mr Dangerous's Kamikaze School of
Cycling]. There is a difference between skill (which you
then mention) and being careful. Being careful should come
first so the cyclist doesnt need the skills to get out of
the dangerous position they have put themselves in (if thats
the case).

2.

What do you mean by "participation"? Its not clear to me.
Could it be simply explained at the first point it is
mentioned? Do you mean 'lots of cyclists'?

3. Your conclusion isnt that clear to me; First you have no
knowledge of the driving habits of the readers of Injury
Prevention,and could be regarded as implying that they
all drive too fast and not carefully. (otherwise why tell
them to slow down and drive more carefully?). Second, on
the road I mentioned above, a more effective action would
be taking away the bikes from the kids who are cycling
not just unsafely but dangerously, and forcing them to
take part in cycling lessons until they learn them. Why
should people be forced to drive at 5mph because kids
insist on suddenly veering in front of cars, pushing each
other as a laugh whilst cycling, crossing the road
without dismounting when there is a gap of a couple of
seconds before the next car (and never mind there is a
ped crossing 100m further on), etc?

How about a more balanced conclusion that still brings out
the point that since helmets wont protect from most serious
head injuries (since they arent designed to do this at road
traffic accident speeds), reducing the cause of accidents is
a far more effective way of reducing head injuries?

--
Tumbleweed

Remove my socks for email address
 
On Sat, 19 Jun 2004 17:43:35 +0100, "Tumbleweed"
<[email protected]> wrote in message
<[email protected]>:

>How about a more balanced conclusion that still brings out
>the point that since helmets wont protect from most serious
>head injuries (since they arent designed to do this at road
>traffic accident speeds), reducing the cause of accidents
>is a far more effective way of reducing head injuries?

The idea of the final paragraph is to bring home the point
that the drivers of the vehicles which most of the danger on
the roads (even those kamikaze kids will likely not die
unless their path intersects with a motor vehicle) are not
some nebulous "them", but are the far less nebulous "us". Do
we sit there crying into our beer because driving causes
danger, or do we do something about it by reducing the
danger we ourselves pose, and setting an example?

Guy
--
May contain traces of irony. Contents liable to settle after posting.
http://www.chapmancentral.co.uk

88% of helmet statistics are made up, 65% of them at Washington University
 
Dr Curious wrote:
>
> Fair enough. "Slower" here, is presumably a substitute for
> something on the lines of "at a speed which is slower than
> you normally do".
>
> As a matter of interest is "drive at a slower speed"
> correct?

Yes because slower is an adjective and it is being used
correctly to modify the noun speed

>
> Presumably the "more carefully" should really cover the
> speed aspect in any case, but your suggestion of "reduce
> their speed" seems the most obvious solution. Though there
> may still be a bit of mileage to be got out of "more
> slowly" perhaps.
>

Not really. You could drive more slowly and less carefully
or more quickly but more carefully. Tricky stuff this
grammar ;-)

Tony
 

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