I think that's right. An attack there could stick, if the pace was high enough beforehand. If they hold an attack to the base of the Alpe, especially with 1 or 2 helpers (ie CSC), it would blow the GC apart. Go hard at the end of C de F and then again at the start of the Alpe. Watch them crack and take minutes on the lot.
Sorry to say, Grater, but if Kirchen does well I'd be surprised. Delighted, but surprised.